A study by the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), published today, found that despite growing threats against Israel, the country has opportunities to improve its strategic situation. "The Strategic Survey for Israel 2012-2013" says that a diplomatic solution could stop Iran's nuclear program and that renewing the peace process with the Palestinians and expanding ties with Sunni Muslim countries would serve Israel's interests.
INSS director Maj.-Gen. (res.) Amos Yadlin, a former Military Intelligence chief, says that to face the challenges confronting Israel in the coming year, it must abandon its passive policy of the past year and initiate policies in order to exploit condition in the Middle East in Israel's favor.
As for the Iranian nuclear threat, the INSS says that deepening Israel's strategic dialogue with the US, together with an agreement between the US and Iran to create conditions preventing an Iran breakthrough to military nuclear capability, is better strategically than an attack on Iran. The INSS says that if no agreement is reached, Iran's progress towards a nuclear weapon will be Israel's main challenge this year. If Iran's current rate of uranium enrichment continues, it will reach the red line set by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in his speech to the UN in September 2012 by this summer.
The INSS says that if the alternatives do not achieve their objective, a military attack on Iran's nuclear facilities would require basic coordination and understandings with the US. It adds that a strike against Iran might not ignite general and tough confrontation with Iran, Hizbullah, the Islamic Jihad, and Hamas because of Iran's limited capabilities and the ayatollahs' regime's understanding of Israel's military capabilities.
The INSS believes that the upheavals in the Arab world will continue through 2013. It says that the chances of a full-scale war with Syria have diminished, but that the possibility of asymmetrical war has increased, such as a confrontation on the Golan Heights against extremist organizations. Such clashes could spread to the Jordan Valley, the Dead Sea, and the Arava if the Jordanian government is undermined and the peace treaties with Egypt and Jordan are eroded. The weakening of the Syrian Army in the civil war has damaged its ability to wage war against Israel.
Given the weakening of the Syrian Army and if no military strike is necessary to solve the problem of Iran's nuclear program, the INSS believes that Israel's program for building military force needs review to meet the regional changes. Some of the study's authors believe that it is possible to cut the defense budget while maintaining the IDF's routine operations and readiness for military confrontations.
The INSS says that there is an opening to rehabilitate Israel's relations with Turkey, even if they will not return to what they once were. It believes that improving these relations will help deal with the repercussions of the upheaval in the Arab world and in creating a coalition against Iran. The INSS says that the Israeli government should initiate measures to end the tensions with Turkey caused by the Mavi Marmara incident and it would be better for Israel to pay the price demanded over this incident.
Yadlin concludes by saying, "Our fears about the fate of the peace treaties with Egypt and Jordan would be materially harmed by the upheavals in the Arab world have not materialized, and public opinion in these countries understands that improving their economies is not compatible with direct friction and confrontation with Israel." He warns, however, that if the economic conditions in Egypt do not improve and the Muslim Brotherhood government fails to keep its promises, protests could be channeled against Israel.
Published by Globes [online], Israel business news - www.globes-online.com - on February 4, 2013
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