Israelis are already well into an election campaign; they just don't know it yet. The political system has entered into an election campaign without announcing it. The only contest taking place right now is over the election agenda. Netanyahu wants to be elected on Jerusalem and Iran, while Moshe Kahlon and Yesh Atid party leader Yair Lapid want the campaign to be about the cost of living and housing. The haredim (ultra-Orthodox) do not care about the agenda; they only want to be part of the coalition.
Israel does not want elections, but the dynamics are dragging it into one. The only thing that can save the current coalition is fear that the next coalition will be more quarrelsome, more divided, more fractious, and more fragile.
According to a Rafi Smith Institute poll commissioned by "Globes," the coalition that Netanyahu wants to form, consisting of the Likud, Habayit Hayehudi, and the haredi parties, will have 54 Knesset seats. If Liberman's Israel Beitenu joins, he will have 64 seats, but Kahlon and Liberman are not in anyone's pocket. Had he wanted to, Kahlon could have run in the Likud, and Liberman has already hinted that he will not necessarily support Netanyahu. The only fuel on which some parts of Israeli politics still run is an additive called anti-Netanyahu. Actually, all the anti-Netanyahu partners are cooking up deals and combinations, but they haven't yet managed to overcome the feeling in Israeli society that Netanyahu is here forever. Six things have to happen for Netanyahu to lose his place as prime minister: Liberman, Labor Party leader Yitzhak Herzog, Lapid, Hatnuah party leader Tzipi Livni, Kahlon, and the haredim all must recommend someone else for prime minister. If an anti-Netanyahu coalition is successfully formed from Hatnuah, Yesh Atid, Kahlon, Israel Beitenu, and the haredim, it will have 59 Knesset seats. That is the point at which President Rivlin will be delighted to be forced to give the job of forming a government to someone other than Netanyahu.
The survey does not reflect the recent flare-up in relations with the US administration. 43% of the public is satisfied with the prime minister's performance, while 57% is not. The "chickenshit" affair just might be a double-edged sword for the harried leader that could increase his support. Even if the Israeli public regards the US as an ally, it does not like it when its prime minister is attacked using crude epithets the US would not dare to attach to Rouhani, Erdogan, or Assad.
There is a dramatic drop in support for Netanyahu. But for the Minister of Finance, the situation is chronic. He is in an unpleasant position. Not only does he look as though he has suddenly aged, but he is not delivering the goods. 78% of the public is dissatisfied with Lapid, whose party stands to win less than 10 Knesset seats according to the poll. That makes Lapid probably Netanyahu's most reliable ally if he wishes to prolong the government's life.
Poll results
If an election were held today, for which party would you vote?
(Results in terms of Knesset seats, first the current poll, followed by the result of the September poll, and, in parentheses, the number of seats in the current Knesset).
Likud 24, 25 (31)
Yisrael Beitenu 10, 10 (-)
Yesh Atid 9, 11 (19)
Labor 14, 14 (15)
Habayit Hayehudi 15, 15 (12)
Shas 7, 9 (11)
United Torah Judaism 8, 7 (7)
Hatenuah 4, 4 (6)
Meretz 8, 7 (6)
New party under Moshe Kahlon 9, 6 (-)
Hadash 5, 5 (4)
Ra'am-Ta'al 4, 4 (4)
National Democratic Assembly 3, 3 (3)
Published by Globes [online], Israel business news - www.globes-online.com - on October 30, 2014
© Copyright of Globes Publisher Itonut (1983) Ltd. 2014