Although the conciliation agreement between Israel and Turkey includes a renewal of security and intelligence cooperation between the two countries, economic and defense sources in Israel doubt whether the previous close relations can be restored in a short time.
The effort to renew the security ties between the two countries will feature wariness, mutual testing of its limits and edges, and building a renewed relationship of trust from scratch. "Defense isn't an all expenses included vacation package at a club in Anatolia. It will take time before we get back to the intimacy that characterized the relations between Turkish and Israeli companies, and between the Turkish and Israeli governments," a source involved in the close security relations between the two countries before the estrangement culminating in the complete rift after Israel intercepted the Mavi Marmara ship on its way to the Gaza Strip in 2010 told "Globes." The source added, "The process will take years, and even then, it is doubtful whether the good years can be recreated."
Before the Mavi Marmara crisis, defense ties between Turkey and Israel amounted to $2.5 billion in exports, making Turkey one of the five main export destinations for Israeli defense companies. Representatives of Israeli arms companies were welcome guests in Ankara and Istanbul, and over the years developed personal ties with businessmen, senior officials in the Turkish defense establishment and senior Turkish army officers.
The red carpets were rolled out for senior executives in Israeli defense companies, agreements on expensive ventures were signed and implemented, and life seemed like a sweet Turkish delight. The warm security ties between the countries were also reflected in frequent maneuvers by Israel air force pilots in Turkish skies, where they found the wide open space lacking in Israel's small dimensions. These maneuvers were sometimes conducted jointly with the Turkish air force, a modern outfit equipped with advanced aircraft like the F-16. The armies and defense organizations of the two countries enjoyed sensitive intelligence cooperation. Not without prodding from the Israel Ministry of Defense, Israeli defense companies reached agreements with the Turks, and offered them the best of their wares.
For their part, the Turks treasured this connection, and bought extensively from the Israeli companies: advanced unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) from Israel Aerospace Industries Ltd. (IAI) (TASE: ARSP.B1) and simulators for training air teams in the operation of warplane systems. Outmoded tanks used by Turkish armored forces were improved and upgraded by Israel Military Industries Ltd. (IMI Systems), which turned them into first line battle tanks. Turkish air force Phantoms were also upgraded by Israel companies, and this is only a partial list.
"The defense ties were so good that the Turks were seriously interested in buy an Israeli espionage satellite, and in Israeli companies becoming involved in plans to manufacture attack helicopters with aid from a Russian company," a security source told "Globes."
The Mavi Marmara affair, which marked the beginning of the decline in relations between the two countries, forced the defense companies to get used to a new situation without hundreds of millions of dollars from the Turks, red carpets, and Turkish delights.
The Ministry of Defense vetoed new deals and reconsidered old ones, not without concern that too much may have been sold already to the Turks. The defense companies had to search for new markets. "We learned to live without the Turks," a senior defense company executive said today. "Although Turkey was a good and significant customer for us, no defense company stands or falls because of a single country. The world is large, and there are other countries in it. Don't forget that in the 1970s, Iran was also a major partner of Israeli defense industries."
"So we turned to other countries," a senior source knowledgeable about relations with Turkey says. "I'm not sure now that this reconciliation agreement will restore the same normalization with Turkey we knew in the good years. There may be defense deals here or there, but certainly not the same volume, and certainly not the same level of sensitive products that Ministry of Defense allowed the defense companies to sell to the Turks. Both sides will want to see in the near future where the renewed relations between the two countries are heading, and how they are developing. The sides need to rebuild trust and that's a long story. If somebody thinks that there will be big deals on the agenda between Turkey and Israel tomorrow morning then they are deceiving themselves."
Everything is to do with interests
A senior executive with another Israeli defense company sounded less skeptical on the economic-defense potential of relations. "In the end everything boils down to interests. I don't know if we will be able to turn the clock back and restore the relations that there were between the two countries a decade ago but we can regain some of the former glory. The two countries want this alliance and theses alliances also have major defense significance. We can hope that things will heat up again rapidly. I believe that as soon as we get the green light, Turkish and Israeli companies will know how to talk to each other and get things done quickly. We already know each other - so it's a matter of making the decision."
One of the main ventures promoted by Israel's defense industry in Turkey and completed just before the crisis was IMI System's $700 million tank upgrade for the Turkish army. This was one of the most major defense deals between Israel and Turkey involving 170 aging M-60 US tanks with IMI making them fit for the 21st century battlefield including advanced missile systems and state-of-the-art protection for the tank crews, even if the tank was hit. The Turkish military was also one of the first in the world to buy IAI's advanced Heron UAV.
Published by Globes [online], Israel business news - www.globes-online.com - on June 29, 2016
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