There's no sure-fire way of knowing the future but the World Future Society website does provide a methodology for trend watching and predicting.
Image how wildly successful your startup would be if you could only predict the future. You would know exactly what your customers will buy, what your competition will do and where your startup will end up – IPO, M&A or bust.
Believe me – I wish there were a site out there that would act as a virtual crystal ball and enable you to see into the future. No such site exists (but during the dot.com craze – one probably got funded)! Anyway, while there is no such thing as a virtual crystal ball, there is a definite need to at least try to predict the future – especially if you are an early stage company with a breakthrough technology.
Today’s Enable looks at the web site of the World Future Society . In doing so, we point out a methodology for trend watching and then provide a a summary of the ten ways your life will change in the cyber future.
A methodology for predicting trends of the future
The site provides a methodology for predicting trends. This methodology is summarized below.
- Hang out in the glamour districts: Observe people as they wander through trendy commercial neighborhoods
- Use "wide-angle"vision: Observing activity on the periphery of your everyday experience may alert you to trends that may be important for you and your organization. This will allow you to act before a crisis happens.
- Think in opposites: Behind every trend there is a countertrend that could offer opportunities.
- Follow the Yellow Pages headings: Another signal of change is the headings used in Yellow Page advertising. New businesses or new descriptions reflect changes in society's interests and demographic makeup. For instance, the aging of society has brought new listings for day spas, pain management, and funeral information.
- Watch your language: One way to spot a rising trend is to watch for nouns being used as verbs, hinting at increased activity. Well-established nouns-become-verbs include "network," "access," and "parent." New examples include "thrifting," a trend toward bargain hunting at thrift stores, and "theming," creating themes to promote events, places, and experiences.
- Read voraciously: Read magazines, newsletters, newspapers, and books focused on futuristic themes and areas of interest, as well as trade journals, almanacs, and chartbooks. Also, watch meaningful TV features, debates, and topical forums. Conduct computer searches of scientific, technical, and professional literature databases. Correspond with experts. In short, do your homework.
Ten ways your life will change in the future
Edward Cornish the president of the World Future Society provides the following ten ways in which he believes your life will change in the cyber future. In short, Cornish focuses on infotech – stressing its advantages and disadavantages. His predictions for a 25-year period are summarized below.
- Infotech will be implanted in our bodies.
- Cybersex systems may become widely available.
- A global culture will develop as infotech ties the world's people together.
- The cyber society will put a high premium on entrepreneurship.
- Cash may become unpopular with everyone except thieves, tax dodgers, and paranoiacs.
- Important, complex, sensitive decisions will be submitted to computers, but people may strongly resist the computer's judgments.
- Movie fans in the future will have more power to alter films to meet their own specifications.
- Privacy will be harder to maintain.
- Infotech will make our houses more comfortable, economical, and secure.
The above teaches us that you can predict the future if you understand the fact that the future doesn’t just happen - people create it through their action or inaction - today. Use today’s Enable to start prediciting a better future for your company – and most of all – for yourself.
Published by Israel's Business Arena on 30 October 2001