This operation will take Israel and Gaza a few more days, but preparations for the victory celebrations can start now. Who should celebrate? Both sides, of course, but the declarations of victory on both sides are mere slogans - both sides have lost.
For Hamas, survival is victory, as is the fact that they made two thirds of Israel's population crowd into their shelters. The weak sides' achievement consists of disrupting the lives of millions of Israelis from Sderot to Nahariya, not enemy fatalities. But the military commanders of Hamas, who are directing the campaign from underground tunnels dug in recent years throughout the Gaza Strip, will emerge from their holes into a reality of death and destruction. Furthermore, they have lost soldiers, staff, and a large proportion of the ammunition that they have stored up. They and their superiors in the Hamas government, the effective sovereign in Gaza, are also liable to lose the public trust they have laboriously built up in recent years.
Israel's losses are more difficult to distinguish. The IDF has struck a blow against Hamas' store of rockets, but that will be replenished in the coming years using tried and trusted methods.
Two goals on the prayer list of Israelis were not achieved in this campaign. The rule of Hamas will not collapse, and the Kassam threat has not been removed. It is very doubtful whether Israel has put Hamas and Islamic Jihad in a position where they will willingly part with their long-range missiles threatening Rishon Lezion and the north. The two organizations are liable to embark on another round of battles merely on account of the risk that this will occur.
A year or two from now, when the buildings in Gaza have been repaired and the weapons stores refilled, while the rockets continue falling on Sderot, we'll ask ourselves what happened to our victory. Israel has not yet begun to count the loss to the economy, the factories and businesses that were shut down, the millions spent on bombing missions there, and the defensive campaign here.
The heartrending pictures of the attacks by the Israeli air force and navy, which are not being shown to the Israeli viewer, will continue to stain Israel's tarnished worldwide image, and will be used by its enemies for propaganda purposes. No one will talk much about the personal trauma suffered by the young generation, and not only it, on both sides as a result of the rocket wars, but it is also part of the price we have paid.
Egypt wins without firing a shot
The main winner in the conflict is Egypt, which did not fire as much as a single shot. Israel fulfilled Egypt's sweet dream of revenge nourished ever since extremists in Sinai murdered 16 Egyptian policemen at the Rafiah border two years ago. Ever since that night, the Egyptians have indirectly suffered from the heavy arm of Hamas. This suffering did not end when all Hamas's assets on Egyptian territory were confiscated. Hamas's military wing helped the factions in various ways to battle the regime in Cairo and attack its soldiers in Sinai and outside Egypt.
President Sisi, as the saying goes, is enjoying his revenge cold. Ibrahim Mahlab, his prime minister, demanded that Israeli immediately cease the escalation, but in Gaza, too, they know that this is nothing but lip service designed to fulfill Egypt's duty. When it comes time to stop the shooting, the two sides will ask the Egyptians to enter the scene and make the final arrangements for a truce.
Even if Israel and Hamas choose the Germans, the UN, the Turks, or the Palestinian Authority to find a way to step down from the conflict, Egypt will still be the main beneficiary from it.
Hamas has been hit hard this time, but its spokesmen are careful to maintain their honor, and are not behaving like someone planning to surrender. They won't agree to accept less than a document like the one formulated in November 2012, which was an achievement for them. That document, which ended Operation Pillar of Defense, surprised many: Hamas was suffering from missiles but the truce agreement improved the situation of the Gaza population and eased the blockade. Even after the current campaign, Hamas will continue to wield a rocket axe over Israel's head, together with a political lever: as strange as it seems, Jerusalem needs a stable sovereign power in Gaza. Hamas's continued functioning as the effective ruler in Gaza is in Israel's interest.
Many in Israel talk about what a victory would look like - the formative moment that will be eternalized by an alert press photographer and will engrave the story of the war in the mass consciousness, like the Egyptian solders' shoes in the Six-Day War or the burnt Syrian tanks in the Yom Kippur war. These days, however, the IDF battle photos in Gaza are well known and unflattering.
Hamas, on the other hand, has such pictures by the thousands from the shelters in Netivot, the security rooms of Ashkelon, and the stairwells of Tel Aviv. If someone is in need of comfort, victory pictures do not necessarily mean there has been a victory. They can't heal bereavement and sorrow, and sometimes they conceal a failure.
The author is the Arab affairs correspondent for “IDF Radio" (Galei Zahal).
Published by Globes [online], Israel business news - www.globes-online.com - on July 14, 2014
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