Construction began on 52,432 new housing units in 2016, about the same as the 52,790 housing starts in 2015, according to an annual report on housing starts published today by the Central Bureau of Statistics.
The figures are preliminary, and may be revised later. The Bank of Israel recently published a study asserting that Central Bureau of Statistics housing start figures were inaccurate, and that the revision of the initial figures in the ensuing months gave a different picture. The Bank of Israel added that that where publications in recent years were concerned, the figures had been upwardly revised later by 10%.
For example, 2015 housing start figures published in early 2016 indicated that there were fewer than 50,000 housing starts. Several months later, however, the figure was upwardly revised to over 52,000.
If the bias pointed out by the Bank of Israel Research Department also applies to the current figures, it is possible that housing starts in 2016 were higher than reported today by the Central Bureau of Statistics.
The Central Bureau of Statistics today attached a note to its report that addressed this question, saying, "The initial estimate for housing starts is temporary. According to experience, a revision of it is likely. The revision is usually due to reports arriving late, the proportion of which is difficult to predict (such as housing starts beginning before the date of on which the building permit is granted). The housing start figures could be published at a later date, thereby reducing the revision of the data. Due to the importance with which the Central Bureau of Statistics regards the publishing of regular accessible data on this matter, however, which is a focus of public attention, the existing timetable will be maintained (within two and half months of the end of the reported period).
"At the same time, methods of reducing the proportion of data revisions in both the gathering of information and the calculation of housing starts reported after the publication of the initial estimate are being checked. The process of improving the estimation is complex, requires increased cooperation with the parties reporting to the Central Bureau of Statistics and changes in the estimation methods, and is liable to take several months in the near future."
The Central Bureau of Statistics announcement continued, "The figures published in this announcement are produced from a combination of data received from the Ministry of Construction and Housing for construction under its supervision and data gathered and processed by the Central Bureau of Statistics for other construction in Israel. As noted, the figures are subject to revision. In this announcement, the number of housing starts for the first three quarters of 2016 were upwardly revised by 1,000 housing units (compared with the announcement published in December 2016), mostly following a revision of the report by the Ministry of Construction and Housing. The housing start figures for 2016 are therefore likely to be revised later."
Published by Globes [online], Israel Business News - www.globes-online.com - on March 23, 2017
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