It appears that there is no end to the surprises coming from the US Congress. First House of Representatives Speaker John Boehner invites Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu to speak before the joint houses of Congress which leads to weeks of accusations, denunciations, defiance, and other emotions (some even genuine) too numerous to mention here.
Just as that furor is dying down after the speech is actually delivered, forty-seven Republican senators issue an open letter directed to the Iranian leadership, warning them that the Senate will oppose any deal signed by the six powers and Iran that the Senate finds inadequate. This was followed by Administration outrage and the same series of denunciations, defenses, accusations, etc. as with "The Speech".
The outrage on the part of the White House is predictable because "The Letter" undercuts the Administration's negotiating position, which is precisely its purpose. Why an open letter by a group of senators is worse than secret letters written by the president to the supreme leader on at least two occasions is not clear. Not to mention the occasion when President-Elect Obama sent a personal representative to Tehran to assure the Iranian authorities that relations were going to improve greatly once he took office.
All this farcical activity may cause regime change in Tehran due to the distinct possibility of the Supreme Leader choking on his own saliva from laughing so much.
As to the validity of any agreement signed with Iran, the 47 senators are correct. An executive agreement sent to Congress for its approval by a simple majority in both houses, such as the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), is the law of the land if the Congress approves, and can only be cancelled by an act of Congress subject to veto. An executive agreement not sent to Congress for approval can be cancelled at any time by whatever president is in office.
Speeches, letters, and the negative attitude of the French government towards the likely text of the deal negotiated by Kerry and Zarif make it unlikely that in fact there will be an agreement on March 24th. Then what? Everyone can go home and the centrifuges continue merrily spinning, or another postponement can be declared and the centrifuges go on merrily spinning. Either way, the world had better be prepared not just for a nuclear-capable Iran but one encouraged by the current US Administration to extend its influence throughout the northern tier of the Middle East all the way to the Mediterranean.
Good luck in dealing with this to whatever government is formed in Israel following the election.
Norman A. Bailey, Ph.D., is Adjunct Professor of Economic Statecraft at The Institute of World Politics, Washington, DC, and teaches at the Center for National Security Studies and Geostrategy, University of Haifa.
Published by Globes [online], Israel business news - www.globes-online.com - on March 10, 2015
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