Even now, while the canons are still roaring, we can make an interim summary of Hamas’s gains and losses. It is unclear whether it will be very different on the day the fighting ends.
In six weeks of war, the organization has suffered a series of hard blows. It has lost hundreds of fighters - some say a thousand. Its tunnel project was mostly destroyed by the IDF, and it will take another two to three years at least to rebuild it. It is possible that the armed wing of Hamas will surprise the IDF with another tunnel that was not discovered, but their ability to use this tool has been drastically reduced. For Hamas, the tunnels were a strategic weapon, equal to rockets in importance, which were meant to diversify its attack options in the Iron Dome age.
In addition to this, the war sowed death, destruction, and grief in the Gaza Strip, at levels never-before-seen in the history of clashes with the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), since Gaza was conquered from Egypt in the Six Day War. The population will demand of Hamas to rehabilitate the wreckage and return the Gaza Strip to normalcy.
Against all this, Hamas presents a series of accomplishments that had not previously been attained. This war will end, eventually, and the morning after, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will need the help of Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas (Abu-Mazen) in order to implement the arrangement that will be reached with Hamas.
The “arrangement” that everyone is hoping for will boil down to day to day matters that will require a broker who is acceptable to both parties. The Palestinian Authority is the only entity able to fill this role. The same Palestinian Authority whose partnership with Hamas Netanyahu strove so mightily to dissolve. Not only will this partnership not be beyond the pale from now on, it is possible that it will become an essential prop for Israel.
Abu Mazen is the only player on this chess board who has a harmonious relationship with all the parties. Egypt, the experienced mediator, cannot conduct fruitful negotiations with Hamas, or with its arch-enemy Qatar, patron of Hamas political chairman Khaled Mashal. Just how deep the rift between them is can be surmised from a conversation I had with a senior official in the political wing, who is close to Mashal, during the talks. “The Egyptians,” he complained, “want to prevent us from accomplishing anything, and they are not doing their job faithfully. We think that they are leading you astray, and relaying false information as though from us.”
So Qatar, through its ally, is intervening in Egypt’s sensitive efforts to attain a cease-fire by using others like puppets.
Hamas also recorded strategic accomplishments against Israel. It succeeded in doing what even Hezbollah never did - forcing Tel Aviv residents into shelters and disrupting daily life in the city, which is considered even by our neighbors to be the capital of the good times. Alongside the threat to Tel Aviv, Hamas also succeeded in upsetting daily life for at least two million Israelis, from Sderot southward.
Another accomplishment was killing 64 IDF soldiers, and another three civilians. This is a high number - and in only two week of ground fighting in Gaza. Thus far, the Israeli public has managed to withstand the losses. If their number rises, a new problem will face the Israeli government: in addition to the ongoing problem of the disruption of daily life and the economy, the government will face massive, emotionally-charged public pressure, of the sort that is difficult to withstand.
But the greatest Hamas accomplishment was changing the perceptions of the international community. The same community that had spurned Hamas and labeled it a terror organization. On the eve of the operation, the main issue that was discussed in international diplomatic corridors was Israel’s security needs and the suffering of the citizen of Sderot and Gaza-border communities. Now, Western media outlets, heads of state, and public-opinion leaders are also discussing the humanitarian situation in Gaza.
Gaza's people were in a desperate situation even before the war. But, during the war, tens of thousands lost their homes. Drinking water, some of which is pumped from deep in the ground, was further contaminated by the destruction of the wells. The electricity supply, which was already shaky, was reduced to a minimum. Gaza citizens cannot travel abroad, because the borders are controlled by Israel and Egypt. Employment opportunities and sources of income are dwindling, because the blockade has harmed the fishing industry, limited agriculture, halted the construction sector (because concrete and steel were not allowed in), and eroded industry. The international community is faced with a moral dilemma: to continue to support the blockade of the Gaza Strip just because of those who rule there, or to stop doing so, if only for the sake of the population that is suffering wars it never wanted. If the world chooses to help the ordinary citizen - it will have to recruit Hamas to help with the reconstruction project. If Hamas is brought in to the effort, that will be perceived as a partial vindication and as a global recognition of its victory. This recognition could last years.
It is widely assumed in Israel that Hamas wants to drag Israel into Gaza and to feed the flames, and that that is why it is launching rockets into Israel. For Hamas, violence is not a goal. It is a means, the lever with which it is trying to force Israel to ease the blockade. So long as Hamas has not been defeated - and there is no indication that the IDF plans to topple its rule and its military wing - Israel will be hard-pressed to obtain quiet without paying for it.
The author is the Arab affairs correspondent for Israel Army Radio (Galei Tzahal).
Published by Globes [online], Israel business news - www.globes-online.com - on August 21, 2014
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