Everyone in the ongoing Iraq tragedy has boxed himself in.
The Iraqi government of al-Maliki invited disaster by refusing to sign a status of forces agreement with the US and running Iraq as a private fief of the Sh'ia majority, systematically sidelining the Kurds and Sunnis. To compound the damage, Maliki is now creating hundreds of armed gangs of young men with no training or discipline but well-armed. Chaos impends
From the beginning, the US government mishandled the unnecessary invasion and its aftermath almost completely. A trillion dollars and thousands of lives later Iraq is a failed state.
Iran now has to intervene directly, and is already doing so with troops in Iraqi uniforms and the commander of the Quds Force in Baghdad advising the government. It cannot stand by and witness a Sunni takeover in Baghdad.
ISIL, the Sunni, terrorist army is in the process of overreaching. Instead of consolidating its hold over western and northern Iraq, it is pushing forward into the Sh'ia heartland. This will not be successful and may well lead to a disastrous defeat
Given all the above, the following tentative conclusions can be reached:
(1) The only group or country that will come out of this well is Iraqi Kurdistan, which now has full control of Kirkuk and its oil. The Kurdish army (Pesh-Merga) is fully capable of holding its own against ISIL and against the Iraqi government. The only defeat ISIL has sustained so far was against the Syrian Kurdish fighters. A declaration of full independence by the Iraqi Kurds is likely soon.
(2) It is quite possible, though absurd, that the US and Iran will cooperate in trying to shore up the Maliki government. Thus the US would be in informal alliance with a country it has declared to be a state sponsor of terrorism, supporting a government avowedly hostile. This is true theater of the absurd.
(3) Any substantial Iranian incursion into Iraq would have to pass through either Sunni Azeri territory or Iranian Kurdish territory. There is a possibility that outside forces might try to take advantage of that geographic situation to promote ethno-religious violence against the Tehran theocrats. More chaos would ensue.
This play is far from over. Turkey, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states, particularly Kuwait, may very well be sucked in in one way or another. Hopefully, Israel will be able to observe events from the sidelines, while having to pay higher prices for the crude oil it imports due to the unrest.
Norman A. Bailey, Ph.D., is Adjunct Professor of Economic Statecraft at The Institute of World Politics, Washington, DC, and teaches at the Center for National Security Studies and Geostrategy, University of Haifa.
Published by Globes [online], Israel business news - www.globes-online.com - on June 16, 2014
© Copyright of Globes Publisher Itonut (1983) Ltd. 2013