Israel consolidating its regional position

Dr. Norman Bailey

Unrest in the Middle East is strengthening Israel, although Norman Bailey warns that the situation is very fragile.

With massacres, shootings and bombings all over the world; attacks on the police in the US and continuing chaos in the Middle East; with all the predictions of doom surrounding the pending exit of the United Kingdom from the European Union; the grotesque spectacles of the party conventions in America and the failed coup in Turkey, some very significant events taking place in the southern Sunni/Israeli arc as well as in Iran are understandably being overlooked:

Terrorist attacks in Saudi Arabia in early July were almost entirely ignored by the Western media. In Jedda, in the Sh'ia majority eastern province and most significantly at the second-holiest shrine in Islam, the Prophet's Mosque in Medina, attacks and suicide bombings were carried out under the banner of Islamic State (IS).

At the same time, and also overlooked, terrorist activity in Iran has increased substantially, especially in the Arab-majority southwestern region and in Iranian Kurdistan. With ethnic Persians only sixty percent of the population at most, such activity has the potential to destabilize the ayatollah's regime, especially with Baluchistan in constant agitation. If the Azeris, the largest of the minority ethnic groups, also initiate anti-regime activity the government will be in real trouble.

A steady stream of formal and informal contacts and visits by officials and former officials of Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan with their Israeli counterparts, has underlined the budding Sunni Arab-Israeli connection. If, as has been reported, an arrangement is imposed by these new partners on the Palestinian Authority (PA) some of the GCC countries can proceed to formally recognize Israel.

The preeminent Sunni military power in the Middle East, Turkey, has temporarily taken itself out of contention. As the failed coup slowly comes more into focus, it would appear that the Russians may have warned the Erdogan regime of the impending coup, which caused it to be initiated earlier than planned, leading to its ultimate failure. It would appear that indeed, as Erdogan has charged, the Gulenist "deep state" was behind the coup, which was sturdily opposed, not just by regime supporters but by the Kemalist majority in the armed forces. If so, that would explain how all of a sudden Erdogan and the leader of the Kemalist Republicans have become allies, after years of mutual detestation.

Major Kurdish gains in Syria, at the expense of IS and the papering over of tribal rivalries within the Kurdish region of northern Iraq, have led to renewed expectation of an imminent Kurdish declaration of independence.

With all this going on, it is little wonder that Israel has been rapidly and effectively consolidating its position in the region. This super-complex geopolitical and geo-economic puzzle is resolving itself more and more in Israel's favor. Much of that improvement is due to the very effective diplomacy headed by Foreign Ministry director-general Dore Gold. This, when added to Israeli scientific, technological, military, security and intelligence predominance as well as the opportunities opened up by natural gas development, have meant that the position of Israel in the region has never been better.

But before we begin to celebrate, we should remember that things can change in the Middle East overnight - an assassination, a successful coup, a popular uprising - are simply some of the developments that may challenge Israel in the future. Constant vigilance, careful preparation and planning and above all flexibility and adaptability within a context of national unity, will continue to be required.

Norman A. Bailey, Ph.D., is Professor of Economics and National Security, The National Security Studies Center, University of Haifa, and Adjunct Professor of Economic Statecraft, The Institute of World Politics, Washington, DC. He was formerly with the US National Security Council and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence.

Published by Globes [online], Israel business news - www.globes-online.com - on July 27, 2016

© Copyright of Globes Publisher Itonut (1983) Ltd. 2016

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