The scandals landing on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's head are translating into Knesset seats: according to the latest Rafi Smith Institute poll for "Globes", the Likud party has lost two seats in two weeks. "The left's brainwashing" as they call it in the ruling party is having its effect, taking Netanyahu down to 22 seats versus Zionist Union (Labor-Hatenuah) leader Isaac Herzog's 23.
The poll is no great source of joy for the Zionist Union, which has also lost a seat in the past two weeks. All the polls carried out in the past week indicate the same trend: the two largest parties are losing strength. If at the start of the campaign is looked as though the political scene would stabilize and the battle would be between the two largest parties, towards the end, the voters are breaking towards the center, and Israeli politics once more looks like a many-headed snake. Unless the trend changes, get ready for elections in 2017.
Although the election campaign has been going for several weeks, the poll results show that the public is reserving the right to change its mind right up to a moment before slotting the ballot paper into the ballot box. According to the poll, only Shas leader Aryeh Deri and United Torah Judaism leader Litzman can breathe easy: almost 90% of their voters are certain of the way they will vote. The rest continue to vacillate even if they give a response about whom they will vote for. Kulanu leader Moshe Kahlon, Yisrael Beitenu leader Avigdor Liberman, and Yesh Atid leader Yair Lapid must continue to woo the voters. More than a third of those who say they will vote for them declare candidly that they could switch. A quarter of Netanyahu and Herzog's voters threaten to spring a surprise, and a third of Habayit Hayehudi leader Naftali Bennett's are hesitating.
The election will start in earnest only when Netanyahu returns from Washington. After the prime minister throws down his ace, the speech before the US Congress, we shall know whether the applause in Congress will wipe out the boos provoked by recent unflattering revelations about Netanyahu and his wife Sara. If Netanyahu continues to lag behind Herzog next week, it is likely that we shall hear the knives being sharpened in the topmost ranks of the Likud party in anticipation of possible disaster.
Poll results
If an election were held today, for which party would you vote?
(Results in terms of Knesset seats, first the current poll, followed by the result of the February 12poll, and, in parentheses, the number of seats in the current Knesset).
Likud 22, 24 (31)*
Yisrael Beitenu 6, 6 (-)
Yesh Atid 11, 9 (19)
Labor-Hatenuah 23, 24 (21)
Habayit Hayehudi 12, 13 (12)
Arab list 13, 12 (11)
Shas 8, 8 (11)
Yahad (Eli Yishai) 4, 4, (-)
United Torah Judaism 7, 7 (7)
Meretz 5, 5 (6)
Kulanu (Moshe Kahlon) 9, 8 (-)
*jointly with Yisrael Beitenu in last election.
Published by Globes [online], Israel business news - www.globes-online.com - on February 26, 2015
© Copyright of Globes Publisher Itonut (1983) Ltd. 2015