What would happen in Israel if a million and a half destitute refugees entered the country in a couple of years?
What would happen in the United States if more than sixty million destitute refugees entered the country in a couple of years?
Then ask yourself what is likely to happen in Lebanon, a country already approaching the condition of a failed state, with over one million destitute refugees from Syria entering the country since 2012.
Lebanon is likely to be the site of the next major crisis in the Levant. Already racked by sectarian violence in the north between Sunni and Sh'ia, centered in Lebanon's second-largest city, Tripoli, with Lebanon south of the Litani River entirely in the hands of the terrorist organization Hezbollah, and with the writ of the pathetically weak central government limited to Beirut and surrounding territories, this country formerly of five million inhabitants, now suddenly six million, half the size of Israel, simply cannot cope.
Even if it receives substantial financial aid from abroad it will still not be able to cope. The Saudis have donated two billion dollars to strengthen the Lebanese army, currently totally unable to confront Hezbollah or to put a stop to the mini-civil war going on in Tripoli, but to date assistance with the refugee problem has been totally inadequate.
The likely result of this tragic situation is a humanitarian crisis of monumental proportions, added to the religious/ethnic division which have plagued the country since the French tried to carve out a state for the Christians of what was then greater Syria. The result was a fifteen-year civil war, ended finally only by Syrian intervention and Israeli occupation of the south. When the Syrians and Israelis evacuated, civil strife resumed, and Hezbollah took over the south.
If, or perhaps better when, Lebanon descends into chaos, where are the refugees, new and old, to go? They have only three options, since Syria is after all where they fled from: Turkey, Europe, and Israel. Europe will not welcome a new wave of Islamic inhabitants who must be provided with sustenance and social services. Israel will certainly not welcome a wave of hundreds of thousands of Muslims. To get to Turkey the refugees will have to traverse the Alawite-dominated region of coastal Syria. The refugees are predominantly Sunni.
It is indeed a witch's brew. Very predictable is what is likely to happen. Almost unimaginable is what will happen afterwards.
Norman A. Bailey, Ph.D., is Adjunct Professor of Economic Statecraft at The Institute of World Politics, Washington, DC, and teaches at the Center for National Security Studies and Geostrategy, University of Haifa.
Published by Globes [online], Israel business news - www.globes-online.com - on April 10, 2014
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