Trump procrastinates on peace process

Trump and Netanyahu Photo: Avi Hayon GPO
Trump and Netanyahu Photo: Avi Hayon GPO

Washington analysts believe the White House has decided to refrain from any "obsessive engagement" in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Following yesterday's meeting between US President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Washington analysts believe that the White House has decided to refrain from any "obsessive engagement" in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, both because it recognizes that the conflict is currently as far from a solution as it was during the term of ex-President Barack Obama and because the Trump administration regards other problems in the region as more urgent.

Netanyahu will make a speech today at the UN General Assembly, most of which will be devoted to criticism of the nuclear agreement with Iran. The prime minister will call for a revision of the main fault in the agreement - the document's expiry date, which will enable Iran to renew its construction of its nuclear arsenal after a few years. In the absence of such a revision, he will call for cancellation of the entire agreement.

Netanyahu met Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi yesterday. It was the first public meeting between the two leaders, although they have already met twice in secret, as reported in the Israeli press.

A US source aware of the administration's thinking on the Middle East and leadership in Israel told "Globes" that even before the meeting in New York, the administration was leaning against repeating "Obama's mistake" of sinking into the quicksand of "obsessive engagement" in the decades-old conflict between Israel and the Palestinians. "Too much political capital and too much willpower is needed to persist in this mission - two things that the administration is unwilling to invest in an initiative at this stage," the source said.

The source added that Jared Kushner, Trump's son-in-law, and Jason Greenblatt, Trump's representative in international negotiations, essentially returned with empty hands from two visits to Jerusalem and Ramallah in recent months, although neither side dared to openly say "No" to Trump. The president therefore did not expect Netanyahu to suddenly show flexibility on the Palestinian issue in the New York meeting, and he in fact did not.

"Trump is a businessman who knows when to stop investing in any particular venture," the source explained. "Nevertheless, he is not selling anything at this stage, perhaps in the expectation that the market conditions will change. The precise expression (of the administration's intention) is to keep things on the backburner."

"The New York Times" today reported that instead of trying to put new life into the dying negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians, as Obama tried to do at the UN General Assembly in his first term as president, the Trump administration will devote most of its efforts to settling the dispute between Qatar and its Persian Gulf neighbors.

Trump, however, is far from disavowing the peace process. He is still paying lip service to the politically correct attitude that obligates continued efforts to reaching a settlement between Israel and the Palestinians. As in the past, however, both he and Netanyahu refrained yesterday from repeating the Obama two-state solution mantra, without which, it appears, there is no chance of formulating an agreement.

In a short public statement before beginning his talk with Netanyahu, Trump said that he believed there was a chance for peace between Israel and the Palestinians: "Peace between the Palestinians and Israel would be a fantastic achievement… I think Israel would like to see it. I think the Palestinians would like to see it. I can tell you the Trump administration would like to see it."

Asked whether he meant one or two states, Trump answered, "We’re talking about it a lot." Netanyahu also omitted any mention of two states. Answering a question about how he saw potential peace between Israel and the Palestinians, Netanyahu said that peace was security and security was peace. Asked whether he was referring to a two-state solution, he still avoided the use of that phrase, saying that he had not changed his views (possibly referring to his Bar Ilan speech in 2009, in which he for the first time raised the idea of a demilitarized Palestinian state next to Israel).

The White House's official announcement about the meeting also did not mention a two-state solution. The announcement stressed that the meeting had been designed to affirm the unbreakable connection between Israel and the US, and that the president had emphasized Washington's solid commitment to Israel's security. The announcement further noted that the two countries had discussed the Middle East with optimism about achieving peace and expanding the economic opportunities that achieving it would create.

Asked before the Trump-Netanyahu meeting whether he intended to cancel the nuclear agreement with Iran, the president answered, "You'll see very soon. We’re talking about it constantly."

Netanyahu hopes to bring about an addition to the nuclear agreement (the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) signed with Iran by the US, China, France, Britain, Germany and the EU in 2015. This addition would extend the restrictions on Iran, make explicit reference to Iran's support for terrorist organizations, and forbid research and development at additional installations, besides those mentioned in the existing agreement. The chances of such a move succeeding appear low, as opening the agreement or proposing an additional document would be perceived by the Iranians as a breach, and would be liable to lead to cancellation of the entire original agreement.

In a talk with reporters, Netanyahu said that Trump was likely to show willingness to amend the nuclear agreement along the lines demanded by Israel, and that the president had suggested lines of action for carrying out the amendment. "A change in the administration's attitude towards Iran is emerging; there is a realization that the agreement is bad," he said.

Published by Globes [online], Israel Business News - www.globes-online.com - on September 19, 2017

© Copyright of Globes Publisher Itonut (1983) Ltd. 2017

Trump and Netanyahu Photo: Avi Hayon GPO
Trump and Netanyahu Photo: Avi Hayon GPO
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