"I'm traveling with my husband and child to the US in 10 days, and our connection is by way of Turkey. I'm shaking with fear, and wondering what to do," a web surfer posted on Facebook during the weekend. The responses by her fellow group members show that the public is divided about traveling by way of Turkey at present, particularly with children.
While some strongly recommended canceling the flight even at the cost of losing money, others asserted that Turkish Airlines and the airport in which the connection took place were among the safest in the world. "Going through the airport there is the safest," another surfer wrote, she said, saying that the transition between flights was within the airport, not outside it (where a terrorist attack was recently committed).
Turkish Airlines is the second most active airline in Israel after El Al Israel Airlines Ltd. (TASE: ELAL), and was the strongest foreign airline even before the reconciliation agreement with Turkey. The company operates nine weekly flights, and has carried 425,000 passengers since the beginning of the year, the vast majority of whom continue connection flights to various destinations around the world, mainly to the US. Turkish Airlines reports that as of now, no extraordinary cancelations had been made by passengers with reserved flights, and prices were not being reduced.
The mood of these web surfers is definitely shared by many Israelis who have already reserved flights and those who are meanwhile avoiding this option for vacations and connection flights.
ISSTA Lines (TASE: ISTA) VP marketing Ronen Carasso said that last weekend's events "finally disposed of Turkey as a vacation destination for 2016." He said that the price did not matter, and would not lead to an increase in demand: "Prices for Turkey are already 40% lower than in Greece in any case, and traffic has come to a halt. The prices in Turkey are excellent, but Israelis aren't going there. The popular clubs in Anatolia (Topkapi, Kremlin, and Crystal) are offering a family vacation deal (two adults and two children) for $400. This price is already nominal, and is not affecting the demand."
Daka90 Group CEO Shachar Turjeman also believes there will be no dramatic changes among passengers on connection flights. He said, "After the terrorist attack, Turkish Airlines lowered prices within 24 hours, and even then there was no dramatic demand for cancelations. The events of last weekend are not a terrorist attack, and we have therefore received no revision at this stage. No tourist was injured in the event, so it's business as usual."
He continued, "Even now, there are a few isolated calls from people with flights in the pipeline. There have been 15 calls from this morning, and not a single one of the callers canceled the flights he bought - even those legally entitled to cancel them."
Still - will a dramatic drop in the price have an effect and convince Israelis to prefer Turkey for a summer vacation? The HotelsCombined website reports that 4 and 5-star hotels in Turkey are offering a weekend for NIS 150 a couple.
In order to encourage vacationers, the website is offering to order and reserve the price, and give full reimbursement in case of a cancelation. This price is 75% cheaper than the bargain prices. "The attempted coup in Turkey has halted new orders for hotels in Turkey from all over the world, so anyone who is not concerned about further shocks can enjoy especially low prices at the peak of the tourist season," said HotelsCombined business development manager Ayal Segal.
Segal added, "At the peak of the tourist season, price reached NIS 2,600 and more. Even when the hoteliers were giving bargains to achieve full occupancy at any price, we were exposed to prices of NIS 800 ($200), so the current price reflects a further 75% drop in the luxury hotels' bargain prices. This is an unprecedented price that we have never seen before, even after terrorist attacks."
Will it help? Probably not. The vacation prices offered by Daka90 in July include, for example, a four-night, an all-expenses included vacation in Anatolia in the 5-star Grand Ring Hotel for $360 (per person for a couple and two children). The price for vacationers in Turkey ordering through Daka90 is $460 per person, including the flight and overnights in 4 and 5-star hotels.
Turjeman explains that before things heated up, 80% of those leaving for Turkey were from the Arab sector, and this proportion has remained stable after the various events there. He added that after the theoretical reconciliation with Turkey, a group of Jewish vacationers had planned to join, but the terrorist attack put an end to that.
"The queue at the airport for Anatolia yesterday was very long maybe because people who don't arrive for the flight don't get their money back," Turjeman pointed out. "I predict that anyone who ordered a vacation in Anatolia and can't get his money back will go as planned, and at this stage, I don't see any rush to cancel among those who ordered."
Turjeman says that prices can't get much lower. "Vacation prices have already fallen, given the dramatic slowdown in tourist traffic from Russia. There are already gaps now, not only in prices, but also in the products that Turkey is offering, in comparison with Greece. The suppliers have already paid for the rooms and the flights, so I don't expected them to cut the price. The premium for a bargain due to the drop in demand is already reflected in today's prices."
One of the suppliers I spoke with says that the events are not disrupting inventory, because since the crisis in relations with Turkey, he has been ready with an alternative inventory, while Turkey has had no problem in recent years increasing and decreasing the inventory as it wishes during the season.
The supplier stated, "The prices right now are substantially lower than in past years. You can get amazing deals for Turkey. The prices can't get any lower. They say that the prices reflect the cost, with almost no profit. There are hoteliers operating their hotels at a loss."
The mood at Ayala Tours is similar: there have been no cancelations of planned vacations, but there were also no new orders today for Anatolia. Four-night vacation packages can be found at Ayala Tours starting at $300 (per person in a two-person room in July) for a 5-star hotel, all expenses included. As of now, no change in price is expected.
Eshet Tours president and CEO Ephraim Kramer believes that tourism in Israel will also benefit from the avoidance of Turkey by almost all Israeli travelers. He predicts that business will pick up not only for sunbathing destinations in other countries, but "also for holiday cottages in Israel, even though hotel prices in Israel are higher than overseas." He believes that the prices of vacations in Turkey will fall, but not drastically, even though tourism from Europe has come to a halt, and demand is being channeled to the Greek islands.
At the same time, the figures listed on Wikipedia show a surge and great interest in topics linked to Turkey: the number of hits on the topic of Erdogan leaped from 15,620 on Wedneday-Thursday to 984,572 on Friday-Saturday, a 6,203% rise.
The number of hits for Turkey soared from 36,730 on Wednesday-Thursday to 1,387,234 on Friday night, a 1,788% rise. The number of hits for the "Turkish armed forces" leaped from 3,750 on Wednesday-Thursday to 380,275 on Friday night, a 10,052% increase. The figures reflect all the hits on a topic in all the languages in which it exists.
Turkish Airlines has announced that passengers who ordered tickets on its flights to and from Turkey, including internal flights and/or flights stopping in Turkey on July 15-17, 2016 and tickets before July 15 valid until August 15 (inclusive), and depending on the terms of the deal, can make a new order, or change their destination, at no additional cost (valid also for a change in seat class, even if the new destination is in the same area).
Those seeking credit for unused tickets will receive it with no additional payment. Credit for used tickets will be given on an individual basis. The company also announced that the tickets will be valid until August 15, with no penalties or additional payment.
Published by Globes [online], Israel business news - www.globes-online.com - on July 17, 2016
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