There is a growing assessment in Washington that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will consent to sign a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with the Obama administration on arrangement for the US aid package to Israel for the next decade, starting in 2018. This is contrary to the threat made by Netanyahu earlier this year that it might be preferable to wait for the next president, hoping to receive a more generous aid package. This was reported to "Globes" by aides to Capitol Hill legislators and pro-Israel sources in the US.
"The administration and the congress agree that the Netanyahu will back off from the tough stance he adopted when he stated that 'it's not yet clear that we will come to an agreement' with the US regarding the new MoU and that Israel may have to wait for the next president, whoever it is," an aide to a senior legislator told "Globes".
The source claimed that legislators from both parties and both houses of Congress have sent Israeli diplomats and Netanyahu's close advisors an unequivocal message: in addition to the growing budget constraints that will affect Washington decision making in the next year, Israel should not jeopardize billions of dollars, considering uncertainty regarding the results of the elections in the November.
"No one clearly addresses the elephant in the room but even the prime minister, who is not one of President Obama's supporters, cannot bury his head in the sand and believe that anyone, even Donald Trump, will be better than the current president," the source stated. "This message has also come from certain US Jews, some of them Republican, who look at the confirmed nominee with growing concern, particularly considering his conduct after the recent use of anti-Semitic imagery in an anti-Hillary elections ad" (this refers to what appears to be a Star of David ornamentation on a stack of 100 dollar bills, with the inscription: "Hillary Clinton in the most corrupt candidate." Trump campaign staff quickly removed the Star of David, but Trump refused to apologize and continues saying that this is not a Star of David but just a "star" and that similar adornments can be found on Disney film ads).
What will happen if Ivanka divorces?
The legislator's aide told "Globes" about a semiserious message to Netanyahu from one of the parties' major donor: almost all of Trump's statements regarding his support for Israel are based on the claim that his daughter converted to Judaism and that he has Jewish grandchildren. What will happen if Ivanka divorces? What if the divorce gets ugly? Can Trump's mercurial nature be trusted not to change his stance regarding Israel? Does Israel's prime minister wish to bet billions of dollars for stealth bombers on the success of Ivanka's marriage?
Moreover, the source added, Netanyahu is well aware of Trump's initial statements in the preliminary elections campaign, which might reflect his real outlook: rich states in which he also listed Israel will have to return aid funds to the US. Trump also stated, early in this campaign, that he wishes to be "neutral" regarding the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in order to become a fair mediator who can push for "a deal" later on.
A pro-Israeli US source says that it clear to the Prime Minister's bureau that Israel will not be saved by Hillary Clinton being elected president not because she is anti-Israeli, but because she will not radically deviate from the Obama administration policy, specifically not regarding a sensitive issue such as aid to Israel.
"We know that some of Netanyahu's advisors warned him that agreeing to sign the MoU with Obama will rile up Republican legislators, who does not wish to add ammunition to the election campaign of Obama's successor, Hillary, but your prime minister should remember that there is a fair chance that control over the Senate will shift to the democrats in the November elections. What will Netanyahu do then?" the source asks.
The aid proposed by Obama is clearly a bitter pill to swallow for Netanyahu. If he hoped that Obama will complete his term of office with a pro-Israeli crescendo and open US treasury doors to Israel and its defense industries unconditionally these hopes were dashed.
According to various reports, Israel had begun the negotiations with a request to increase aid to $50 billion in 10 years, about 5$ billion annually, from the current annual $3.1 billion aid. This would have constituted a 60% rise (separate from the missile defense program aid). Gradually, Israel decreased its demand to $40 billion in ten years - that is annual aid of $4 billion.
The Obama administration currently proposes slightly less ($3.8 billion annually, according to some estimates), but subject to two conditions: 1. Merging the separate aid for Israel's missile defense program into the general aid package, forfeiting the various additions the congress used to provide for these programs annually. 2. Plus-ups Israel will have to spend all aid funds on procurement from US companies. In the current MoU, Israel was permitted to spend about 25% of the aid on procurement from Israeli companies and several hundreds of millions of dollars on aircraft fuel a significant boost accelerating defense industry growth.
Better one bird than two in the bush
As early as January 2016, White House Press Secretary Josh Earnest warned that the US' ability to fully accede to Israel's request to increase defense aid is limited. "While the US is prepared to preserve Israel's qualitative military edge, the negotiations on the aid package are taking place in the shadow of severe budgetary constraints in the US," Earnest said.
Even if Netanyahu believes that Obama's liberal agenda makes him unfavorable towards Israel, he must concede and grit his teeth. Giving way to Israel regarding the use of 25% of aid for procurement in Israel would be seen by US voters as subsidizing the competitors of US defense industries. This would not be accepted in a period in which adding jobs to the market is on the top of the agenda.
At the same time, both Obama and Netanyahu have incentives to complete the negotiations quickly. An aid deal with Israel will support Obama's claim to have acted to fortify Israel's security more than any other president. For Netanyahu, this agreement will prove that relations with the US have survived a difficult and turbulent period of disagreement. And, moreover, better one bird in the hand than two (probably unattainable birds) in the US bush.
Furthermore, some observers believe that a MoU that will settle aid for the next ten years will make Obama impervious to any accusations of having a policy that is too harsh on Israel if he indeed decides to pressure Israel into reaching an agreement with the Palestinians during his last months in office. However, Netanyahu has already shown that he knows how to evade such pressure.
Published by Globes [online], Israel business news - www.globes-online.com - on July 10, 2016
© Copyright of Globes Publisher Itonut (1983) Ltd. 2016