Prof. Barry Chiswick of the University of Illinois, Chicago, a senior researcher in immigration economics, gives a failing grade to US immigration policy over the last twenty years. He praises the policy of Australia and Canada of not allowing in, for economic reasons, “low skill" labor, and regrets that Israel “has not learned from the failures of liberal-democratic countries, and has taken in foreign workers from poor countries, and then had to face realities when they then refuse to leave.”
It is doubtful whether a leader with a biography like that of president-elect Barack Obama will steer the US towards an immigration policy of the type that Chiswick advocates, but when asked how the recession will impact the primary inflow of immigrant labor to the US - from Mexico - Chiswick does feel there will be a slowdown in the short-term.
Chiswick will be in Israel to attend the “Globes” Israel Business Conference 2008, where he will be participating in the panel session on immigration, but his professional interests are not the only thing that brings him to Israel regularly, since he has a son, Abe, living in Migdal Ha’Emek.
Globes: What sort of impact do you feel the global economic crisis will have on trends in immigrant labor?
Chiswick “On the face of it, there will be less jobs and housing for Mexican workers in the US. The effect of the recession in the US on the Mexican economy is clear: the reliance on the US dollar, the rise in house prices in the US, and the rising demand by Americans for employment, are having a negative impact on the Mexican economy. In the short-term, there will be a slowdown in immigration from Mexico, but the result over the long-term is difficult to predict, because if the level of income in Mexico drops substantially, people will prefer to immigrate to the US.
“As for the movement of immigration from Africa to Europe, I believe it will fall significantly in the short-term, and will resume again in the long-term, once economic activity picks up.”
Do you have any tips for Israeli employers, during a time of recession?
“I would advise them to employ Israeli workers, rather than foreigners. The foreign workers will tend to return to their countries, and the idea is to lower the poverty rate among Israelis. Government policy can make it less convenient for employers to employ foreign staff. It can also discourage foreign workers from coming, and get foreign workers to leave when their contracts end. These are tools and mechanisms that the government has at its disposal and it ought to use them.”
The crisis has been referred to as an opportunity to attract back scientists who got lost in the brain drain.
“American universities are under a lot of economic pressure right now, and the same goes for young scientists of Israeli origin. The economic crisis in the US has made attracting them back much easier. If you’re talking about a senior faculty member in his forties or fifties, that’s another story, but if you’re talking about young Israelis aged thirty, who hold advanced degrees, attracting them back will be easier.”
The impression in Israel is that the brain drain is a unique problem. How true is this?
“There is a regular movement of immigration to countries like the US, Australia, Canada, and also to Western Europe. The income in these countries is higher, and people come there from all over the world, including from Israel. It is an international phenomenon. If you’re talking about the source countries, they’re losing talented people after investing money in training them, but many of them acquire skills and bring these back with them to their home countries.
"It’s not as if there’s nothing that can be done, but you can’t use the law to force people not to leave. I believe one should use the carrot but no stick approach. In other words, investing in high-tech, presenting a friendly attitude towards international companies interested in investing in Israel, and fostering a business-friendly environment - these will help retain high-tech workers in Israel.”
Like Australia and Canada
Chiswick makes no secret of his support for the promotion of highly skilled immigration and the enforcement of laws on illegal workers in the US - a sensitive issue that formed a key part of the recent election campaign. Both Obama and McCain expressed their support for tighter controls on illegal immigration, but they also supported the increasing of quotas for family reunions and work visas.
Where is your approach situated in the policy roadmap between ‘closing doors’ and whitewashing illegal immigration?
“One of the interesting things in this debate in the US, is the crossing of traditional lines and parties. There is no simple dichotomous distribution. My view is that we have to take into account the general economic interest of the US, and there are two basic questions here. One, how do you increase the productivity of the US economy, and two, who gains and who loses from one policy or another. As for increasing productivity, there needs to be a focus on encouraging immigration of highly skilled workers such as scientists, engineers, medical researchers, computer professionals, and people with a background in technology.
"As to the second question - who gains and who loses - what we’ve seen in the US over recent decades is a very large increase in low skill immigration, something that has led to the creation of an enormous gap between highly skilled and low skill workers. This is a social situation which is not wanted. It is in the economic interest of the US to increase highly skilled immigration and reduce the low skill.”
How did it happen?
“In US law, the principal grounds for qualifying for a permanent visa are determined by family ties - to whom you’re related. This results in the immigration quota being filled by low skills such as the skills brought in by African immigrants. I am in favor of switching to an immigration policy like that in Australia and Canada, which places greater emphasis on the skills of visa applicants.”
What score would you give the US immigration policy?
“As far as the last 20 years are concerned - a failure. In 1986 a law was passed granting an amnesty to three million illegal aliens. The wider effect of the law was the encouragement it gave employers to hire illegal aliens.
“How did it happen? The law was passed as a form of political horse trading, which was supposed to have outlawed the hiring of illegal immigrants, but would allow anyone already here to stay. But only half the deal was upheld, because the amnesty was granted, but over the last 20 years since then there has been no effort to take sanctions against employers who employ illegal aliens.
“It is estimated that today the number of illegal aliens in the US has reached 12 million. I call that a failure. A failure by government to enforce its own rules. It's a failure to carry out the deal. When President Bush initiated yet another amnesty in 2006, it sparked a public outcry that buried it. Had it been passed, several more million people at least would have been granted an amnesty.”
What should be the policy now?
“There needs to be a substantial effort to enforce the law banning the employment of illegal immigrants. In addition, I recommend lowering the number of visas issued on the basis of family ties, and increasing the number of visas issued on the basis of the applicant’s ability to contribute to the US economy.”
Is that realistic?
“We have a large number of local who can do what low skill individuals do. If there are fewer of them, and the number of highly skilled individuals rises, it will reduce the poverty rate among the low skill population in the US.”
CIS Immigrants have brought investment to Israel
Asked how he rates Israel’s policy on immigrant labor, Chiswick replies, “As for foreign workers - Israel did not take note of what happened in other countries, when they brought foreign workers to a liberal democracy - it's very hard to get them to leave the country. Take a look, for example, at the Turkish foreign workers who came to Germany. They thought the families would not follow them, and that they would go home once their contracts ended - it didn’t happen.
"Experience shows that when a liberal democracy brings over foreign workers from poor countries to a more affluent country - and that’s what Israel is in this context - it’s very difficult to get them to leave the country. It creates a large community of alienated and impoverished low skill individuals, who become a permanent part of the general population. This is the experience Israel is going through at present, exactly like the US and Germany. The best way to prevent this is not to let it start. You can’t change history, but you can develop a policy to stop the situation from getting worse.”
What action can and should be taken?
“The first thing is not to allow in any more workers from poor countries. There will be industries that will complain about this, so the government needs to help these industries employ Israelis. If there are fewer foreign workers, salaries will rise and the jobs will be more attractive. The multitude of foreign workers is one of the reasons why salaries are low.
On the other side there is the mass immigration to Israel from the CIS, which brought one million people, a good many of whom are highly skilled individuals. This is a separate issue from foreign workers, because of the unique immigration policy known as the Law of Return. The immigration of one million people has undoubtedly given the Israeli economy a tremendous push, not just because it brought in multi-talented workers but also the considerable investment that followed it here.”
There have been numerous complaints in Israel over the years about highly skilled immigrants whose talents have been wasted.
“True. This always happens in countries that take in immigrants, and it happened in the US as well. Israel did a very good thing in providing them with vocational training. The drawback was that so many of them were older and the labor market for older immigrants is always much tougher than it is for those who arrive here when they’re in their 20s.”
Prof. Chiswick will speak at this year's Israel Business Conference at the David Intercontinental Hotel in Tel Aviv, to be held on December 14-15.
Published by Globes [online], Israel business news - www.globes-online.com - on November 27, 2008
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