A piece of advice for any politician, official, or ordinary citizen who begins to plan how to spend the US special aid for the disengagement plan: better not put all your eggs in this imaginary basket; don’t promise things on the basis of money that has not yet arrived, and don’t foster illusions about allocations to flow from US taxpayers in the near future.
On one hand, one could listen to what the sources in Washington are saying in the wake of the visit by Acting Minister of Finance Ehud Olmert, that no special obstacles are expected in obtaining aid, the amount of which “has not yet been determined”. After all, this is a geopolitical change that greatly facilitates efforts to stabilize the Middle East, not to mention that Israel is a US ally.
On the other hand, however, one ought to also be aware of possible difficulties. Anyone who begins to dream about cash flows to Israel in the coming years ought to call officials at the Ministry of Finance Budget and Accountant General departments, and ask what happened to the $1.2 billion the US promised Israel for implementing the 1998 Wye Accord with the Palestinian Authority in 1998. The request was submitted, approved in 2000, and the money finally arrived in 2001, and not before arguments between the administration and Congress.
This time, the US administration promises, at least according to Vice Premier Shimon Peres, to transfer $2 billion to Israel over four years, with at least half the money financing “development of the Negev and Galilee”.
To put matters in proportion, it should be remembered that a group of wealthy countries yesterday approved $5 billion in tsunami relief for Asia, where people were really left bereft of everything. The US was sharply criticized for financing less than a tenth of this aid package. Maybe the administration, or those sources in Washington, should ask themselves whether this is a good backdrop for discussing increased foreign aid to Israel?
Even if the administration ultimately agrees to provide a $2 billion special aid package for Israel, it will want to know about plans for pursuing the peace process, more or less along the lines described by Secretary of State Dr. Condoleezza Rice. This means a commitment by the Israeli government to continue the peace process, and make an effort to evacuate illegal settlement outposts. If that were not enough, Israel will be asked to detail its investment plans in the West Bank, so that the US will have a clear idea about how the Israeli government plans to spend US taxpayers’ money.
Israeli representatives should also be ready to provide great detail about how it will spend the $1 billion that Peres says is allocated for development of the Negev and Galilee. Someone in the administration is likely to ask for details about projects to benefit all the residents of these areas, including Israeli Arabs in the north and Bedouin in the south.
It is highly doubtful if the US will begin asking hard questions about education for Bedouin children, clinics, or access roads to Arab communities. Nor is it likely to be necessary to explain to them what are unrecognized settlements that lack government services. But it is quite possible that the US will want to see general plans ready, before they are implemented.
After this obstacle course, both houses of Congress will then debate the aid request, because it will be necessary to find a budget item to finance this generous gift. The questions couldn’t be simpler. Why, for example, does Israel now remember the need to develop the Negev and Galilee, and why did it invest such huge sums in areas that it knew would not remain under its control under any future peace agreement?
True, many members of Congress are strong supporters of Israel, but quite a few also hate all foreign aid programs. The question will be whether they love Israel more than they hate aid to other countries. The aid will probably eventually reach Israel, but, as mentioned above, Ministry of Finance officials building budgets for the coming years will have their work cut out for them.
Published by Globes [online], Israel business news - www.globes.co.il - on August 24, 2005