Citi: Copaxone growth continues

65% of doctors might switch to oral therapies for multiple sclerosis, if they are effective.

Citi analysts Dr. Yaron Werber and Andrew Swanson state, on the basis of a survey of multiple sclerosis treatments, that Copaxone growth continues as a second-line treatment for multiple sclerosis, but use of Tysabri is increasing for refractory and aggressive cases. Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd. (Nasdaq: TEVA; TASE: TEVA) makes Copaxone; Tysabri is made by Biogen Idec Inc. (Nasdaq: BIIB) and Elan Corporation plc (NYSE; Dublin: ELN; LSE: ELA). The analysts predict that Teva will "benefit from continued, though moderating, growth in Copaxone volumes and price."

Citi says, "Interferons are the mainstay as physicians overwhelmingly use them first. Of those, 34% of patients fail interferon. Interestingly, only 14% of interferon failures are treated with Tysabri compared with 35% with Copaxone. Of the 35% of patients who fail Copaxone, 16% get Tysabri. All told, 15% of interferon and Copaxone failures go on to receive Tysabri."

Citi adds that oral therapies could take market share. "Physicians indicated that up to 65% of their patients could be switched to an oral therapy if it demonstrates comparable efficacy to injectable therapies. We believe that this could pose a threat to current interferon and Copaxone therapies, but it remains to be seen if their efficacy will be able to match those of the injectables."

Teva is developing an oral multiple sclerosis therapy laquinimod, which is in Phase III clinical trials for which the company hopes to recruit 1,000 patients.

The survey covered 50 US neurologists who treat 11,855 multiple sclerosis patients, 6% of all treated patients.

Published by Globes [online], Israel business news - www.globes-online.com - on November 15, 2007

© Copyright of Globes Publisher Itonut (1983) Ltd. 2007

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