The chances of an Israeli attack on Iran's nuclear installations is slim, and any military action will only be taken after the US presidential election in November, to avoid harming the chances of Republican candidate Senator John McCain of being elected, writes "Time" magazine.
In its article entitled "Israel's debate over an Iran strike," "Time" says that a former senior Mossad officer told it that "Israel is mindful that an air strike on Iran would jolt the US presidential election, probably rebounding badly on Republican contender, Senator John McCain." Time adds, "Sources say that Israel sees a narrow "window of opportunity" for military action opening up between November and the swearing-in of the new American president next January. 'No Israel leader wants to be blamed for destroying the Republican chances,' says the former Mossad officer."
"An Israeli military planner estimates that Iran will reach "the point of no return" in developing the capacity to build nuclear weapons by early 2009. The US sees things differently, he says, calculating that Iran will have enriched enough uranium to weapons-grade to be able to build a bomb by mid-2010. Both scenarios, says the Israeli planner, 'give them some leeway for negotiations, but not much.
"Despite Israel's top-notch air force, launching a long-range strike against a multitude of hidden targets in Iran entails huge risks and uncertain rewards. At most, say Israeli intelligence sources, an attack - which Israel would undertake with only a nod and perhaps logistical support from the US - is likely to stall Iran's program by just a year or two. And that makes the cost-benefit analysis weigh against an air strike on Iran, according to some senior Israeli officials who urge caution," "Time" says.
"Time" notes that both the active and retired intelligence officials it spoke to, "tended to dismiss Iran's threats of retaliation against Israel and the US. Ephraim Halevy, the previous Mossad chief who now heads the Center for Strategic and Policy Studies at Hebrew University in Jerusalem, says, "Iran is not 10 feet tall." Halevy contends that a barrage of Iran's missiles on Israel would not do too much damage, since dozens would be shot down by Israel's advanced antimissile system."
Published by Globes [online], Israel business news - www.globes-online.com - on July 27, 2008
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