No-one took the threats of the Arab parties to boycott the elections seriously. However, the latest "Globes" poll in collaboration with Geocartography, managed by Prof. Avi Degani, paints a worrying picture: the Arab community is staying at home, and the Arab parties are failing to get above the minimum vote threshold.
The poll, conducted yesterday evening (Wednesday) among a representative sample of 800 people, shows Arab parties Ra'am Ta'al and Balad (National Democratic Assembly) disappearing, sinking below the level of a single seat. 28% of the Arab community say they will not vote in the coming elections, and another 40% have become floating voters and have not yet made up their minds how to vote. A simple calculation gives a problematic result: 70% of the Arab community is starting to lose faith and is considering foregoing participation in the democratic process.
Although the Supreme Court overturned the disqualification of Balad and Ra'am-Ta'al by the Knesset and ordered their restoration to the elections for the 18th Knesset, it seems that the effect of the affair on the Arab sector is more dramatic than was thought. The Arab community is offended, and within a week the two Arab parties have lost seven Knesset seats.
Recent years have seen a steady decline in the voter turnout among the Israel's Arab population, but this is a new low. Whether it's a reaction of the Arabs to the war in the Gaza Strip, or whether the Arab community is simply becoming more and more disaffected from the state, or whatever the reason, if a third of the Arab electorate fails to go the polls, that will be a danger signal.
If the reason behind the decision of so many Arabs not to vote is a feeling that the Arab leadership has become too extreme, this could explain why Kadima and Meretz have strengthened. Some of the disappearing Arab seats have migrated to the two parties of the left. Kadima has strengthened by two seats since last week's poll, at least one of them representing the spoils of the Arab parties, and currently stands at 23 out of the Knesset's 120 seats. Meretz has also gained two seats, rising to seven.
The Arab population is potentially worth about 18 seats, and it will be interesting to see which way those who do decide to cast their vote will go.
Likud continues to weaken gradually, and in the past week it has dropped one seat, to give it a total of 31. For now, that is not significant, but if Likud's standing continues to b eroded, party leader Benjamin Netanyahu could find himself at the head of an unstable government. The gap between Likud and Kadima has narrowed, but with nine seats still separating them, it is hard even to imagine an upset. Even if the unprecedented number of undecided voters is taken into account (20% according to this poll, nearly 30% according to others), a week and a half before the election date it does not seem as though the picture can change dramatically.
Yisrael Beytenu (Israel Our Home) is stable at 16 seats, and has maintained its position as the third largest party for the third successive week. Party leader Avigdor Lieberman will be a power in any government that is formed. Anyone who thought that the police investigation of him would hurt him electorally will discover that the timing of the investigation mainly hurt the image of the police, and that the public is has lost faith in it. Lieberman is currently one seat ahead of the Labor Party, to which the poll gives 15 seats. It looks as though the momentum Labor gained during the Gaza operation has run out.
To judge from the relative strengths of the blocks, the elections have already been decided. The right-haredi (ultra-orthodox) block has crossed the 70 seat mark. The center-left block has fallen below 50 seats. Kadima, Labor, Meretz, and Hadash together have 49 seats. With only eleven days to go before election day, it will be hard for the center-left block to close a gap of 18 seats.
Published by Globes [online], Israel business news - www.globes.co.il - on January 29, 2009
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