The decline in support for the Kadima party is continuing, and this week it is seen winning 34-35 Knesset seats, according to the latest “Globes”-Smith survey conducted by Rafi Smith.
Another figure that ought to worry Kadima’s leaders is a significant rise in the number of floating voters, to 20%. In effect, a fifth of the electorate has not yet decided who to vote for. The undecided vote is expected to decide the fate of Israel’s political system for the next few years.
The survey also found that, once again, neither the Likud nor the Labor Party were able to pick up momentum this week, each gaining just one Knesset seat.
This fact might encourage small and medium-sized parties because the large number of floating voters, who were initially mostly former Labor and Likud voters who switched their support to Kadima, they are still sitting on the sidelines, and have not returned to their former parties. While it is possible that many undecided voters will stay away from the polls, some may decide to vote for the smaller parties.
It is therefore possible that the large number of undecided voters could change the political map. The strong possibility that voter turnout will be lower than in previous elections merely increases the uncertainty. A swing of three or four Knesset seats either way could be significant in building the next coalition, which will probably comprise at least three parties.
Another interesting finding in the survey is the creation of a bloc of three parties with 27-30 Knesset setas: Avigdor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu, Shas, and the combined National Union-National Religious Party, each with nine or ten seats.
Kadima’s slide parallels a slide in Acting Prime Minister Ehud Olmert’s standing. In response to the question whether he was suitable to serve as prime minister, 38% of respondents said yes this week, and 51% said no. In last week’s survey, 43% of respondents said Olmert was fit to be prime minister.
Despite the loss of support for Olmert, neither Likud chairman MK Benjamin Netanyahu nor Labor chairman MK Amir Perez are gaining support. This week, 35% of respondents said Netanyahu was suitable to serve as prime minister, and 60% said he was not. Only 27% of respondents believe that Perez is suitable to be prime minister, and 70% say he is not. The proportions are the same as last week.
Considering the large number of undecided voters, the next question is: What factor most affects the choice of party to vote for? Interestingly, 48% of undecided voters said a party’s stance on diplomatic and security matters would be the deciding factor; 22% said it would be the party leader; and 10% said it would be the party’s economic platform.
Published by Globes [online], Israel business news - www.globes.co.il - on March 9, 2006
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