Voting in Israel's close-fought general election ended at 10pm this evening. Among the major parties, the Channel 1 exit poll gives 30 of the Knesset's 120 seats to Kadima, led by Tzipi Livni, 28 seats to Likud, led by Benjamin Netanyahu, 15 to Israel Beiteinu, led by Avigdor Lieberman, 13 to Labor, led by Ehud Barak, and 9 to Shas, led by Eli Yishai.
Other polls are fairly consistent with this projection. The Ynet-Smith poll gives 28 to Kadima, 26 to Likud, 16 to Israel Beiteinu, 14 to Labor, and 10 to Shas. Channel 2's poll has Kadima 29 seats, Likud 27, Israel Beiteinu 15, and Labor 13.
The exit poll results are something of an upset, since in pre-election polls Likud led all the way, albeit with a steadily reducing lead.
Although it looks as though Kadima will be the largest single party, as things stand it is nevertheless expected that it will be Benjamin Netanyahu who will be asked to try to form a government, since, with 63-64 projected seats, the right-wing block has a clear lead over the center-left block to which Kadima belongs. The result could however lead to a constitutional crisis, since as the largest party Kadima will claim that Tzipi Livni has the right to form a government. The duty of the president, Shimon Peres, will be to invite the person with the greatest chance of forming a government to attempt to do so; this does not necessarily have to be the leader of the largest party.
Referring to Tzipi Livni's unsuccessful coalition negotiations after Prime Minister Ehud Olmert announced his resignation and she became Kadima leader, which is what led to the today's election, veteran Likud politician Dan Meridor said this evening, "The president does not have to guess. He called on Tzipi Livni to form a coalition, and she failed. There is no doubt that Netanyahu will form a government." Meanwhile, for Kadima, Eyal Arad said, "Tzipi Livni will form a government with anyone who agrees with her basic policy platform. We await the actual results."
The projected result is a catastrophe for Labor, the worst in the party's history. Israel Beiteinu too has gained far fewer seats than the pre-election polls indicated that it would.
The Pensioners party and the Meimad-Green party have apparently not passed the threshhold vote required to gain representation in the Knesset.
Published by Globes [online], Israel business news - www.globes-online.com - on February 10, 2009
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