"Where a Sudanese refugee can enter, so can a terrorist"

Terrorism expert Dr. Boaz Ganor sees jihadists, not Hamas, behind today's attacks.

Today's combined terrorist attacks that originated from Sinai took most of the Israeli public by surprise, as it has been busy with the tent protest and the Margalit Tzanani affair, but Dr. Boaz Ganor, director of the Institute for Counter-Terrorism at the Interdisciplinary Center Herzliya was surprised. He says that such an attack was predictable ever since the fall of President Hosni Mubarak in Egypt, the fall in status of Hamas in Gaza, and the fact that the border is wide open.

"In the past few months, we have seen a substantial rise in terrorist activity in Sinai, expressed in the statement by jihadists affiliated with al-Qaeda on the establishment of a Caliphate in Sinai. They even call themselves 'Sinai al-Qaeda'," says Ganor.

He says that, since the terrorist attack at Taba in 2004, Egypt has had no effective control over Sinai, which has made it easy for terrorist organizations to operate there.

"Even during the Mubarak government, control of Sinai was shaky. Now that the Egyptian regime is busy with political survival and all its actions are perceived as helping or collaborating with Israel and examined under a microscope by the Egyptian people, the regime is even more hesitant than before in frustrating terrorist activity," says Ganor.

"According to one estimate, there are tens of thousands of jihadists operating in the area today. They belong to various organizations, which have grown stronger since the fall of Mubarak. The threat from the south has increased and border is open. We also see many jihadists escaping from Egyptian jails, and they are joining the terrorist forces in Sinai. Besides them, there has been a steady increase in the number of Palestinians joining organizations affiliated with al-Qaeda. These Palestinians are fed up with Hamas, which they perceive as too pragmatic vis-à-vis Israel."

Who do you think is responsible for today's terror operation?

"We still don't know for sure who is responsible for the incident, but in my view there are two main possibilities. One, the less probable of the two, is that it was perpetrated by Palestinians who crossed from Gaza into Sinai, and from there back into Israel. We have seen attacks on this format in the past. The likelihood that this is the case this time is low, because Hamas has no interest in escalating the situation with Israel at present.

"The other, more likely, possibility is that the attacks were carried out by cells belonging to world jihad and al-Qaeda. These cells have also hit the gas pipeline from Egypt to Israel time after time, and they will continue trying to carry out terrorist actions, with greater intensity, against Israel."

How can a deterioration on the southern border be prevented?

"The State of Israel needs an obstacle on the ground in the South. It could be in the form of a fence, a trench, a minefield, technological means, or, preferably, a combination of all of these. At the moment, the border is porous, and for much of its length 'there's air and no obstacle.' Where a Sudanese refugee can get through, a terrorist can certainly get through too. You also have to remember that the jihadist element represents a worldwide threat, among other things to the Egyptians, whose sovereignty has been dented. The battle against terror must continue to be a regional and international battle."

Published by Globes [online], Israel business news - www.globes-online.com - on August 18, 2011

© Copyright of Globes Publisher Itonut (1983) Ltd. 2011

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