Last month, "The Economist" declared the age of the hegemony of the private car in the West to be over. According to the magazine, private vehicle usage has reached a peak from which it will only decline.
This is not a matter of a temporary decline in the rate of private vehicle use because of the economic crisis or the steep rise in the price of fuel, but a historical process. The number of kilometers traveled has been on the decline in Europe since the beginning of the 2000s. The UK has reached "peak car", and the number of car journeys has fallen back to the levels of the 1970s.
The highest rate of driving license ownership is among pensioners, and the younger the age group, the lower it falls. This is not just the case in Europe, but also in the US, the country that brought car ownership as a value and an ideal into the world.
The Economist notes that governments will lose revenues from fuel excise and taxes on car sales, but, on the other hand, many good things will happen too: dependence on oil will decline, cities will become pleasanter places to live in, people who prefer to walk or ride a bicycle will improve their fitness and sense of well-being.
In all these welcome trends, there is no place for the Israel of 2012, despite its accession to the OECD. On the contrary, findings published by the Central Bureau of Statistics last month show that kilometers traveled in Israel are on the rise, despite the economic crisis and the soaring price of fuel.
In 2011, total kilometers travelled in Isreal were 51 billion, 1.8% more than in 2010. Worse than that is the trend, which indicates ever growing use of private vehicles. Total distance travelled in 2011 was 8% more than the projection for that year made by the Sheinin committee in 2005. In fact, current distance travelled is already hgher than the total predicted for 2015.
The reason for that is obvious to everybody: public transport in Israel is dying. In the 1970s, 70% of journeys were by public transport and 30% in private vehicles. Today, the situation is the reverse: only 23% of the population of the three largest cities use public transport, and 77% use private vehicles.
The total length of Israel Railways' track is 1,100 kilometers, compared with 1,400 kilometers in the days of the Turks. The number of railway lines is much lower than it was under the British mandate. For years, only roads have benefitted from generous budgets, but despite that, road construction has not kept pace with the rate of growth in the use of private vehicles.
Alongside the growth in distance travelled, the number of private vehicles has also grown in the past decade at an average of 3% annually. Within less than two decades, the number of private vehicles in Israel has grown by 160%, compared with 80% growth in road area. The result is ever increasing congestion, together with air pollution and road accidents. According to a 2007 UN report, Israel already has the worst traffic congestion among Western countries. To sum it up in a sentence, the Israeli driver pays European prices for fuel, but gets US-standard public transport.
What Trajtenberg had to say
All the same, something has shifted in the outlook of the policy makers. If at one time all they believed in here was more roads and intersections, it seems that no-one now will disagree about the need for massive development of public transport infrastructure, buses and trains of all kinds. The most trenchant justification for this was provided recently by the Trajtenberg committee in one of the less well-known sections of its report, in which it stated: "A ramified and efficient public transport system is the most appropriate answer to the transport problems and a vital element in economic and social advancement."
Every additional percentage point in the rate of use of public transport is worth another NIS 400 million a year to the economy, Trajtenberg found. The cumulative saving to be achieved through a significant switch to public transport is estimated in the tens of billions. Conversely, a continuation of the trend of decline in the use of public transport generates, in Trajtenberg's words, "a negative momentum cycle", leading to increasing dependence on private vehicles. "Continuation of this trend without government intervention will lead to a transport crisis in the not very distant future," the authors of the report warn.
And what is the government doing in order to save the economy and us from the threatened crisis? Actually, we chose to begin with the half-full cup. Government investment is public transport in Israel is on the up.
The hour of the train
After 40 years of criminal neglect, Israel Railways is finally enjoying a revival. Billions of shekels are being invested, and will be invested in the coming years, to construct new railway lines, upgrade and add tracks to existing lines, convert the system to electric, and buy hundreds of new cars and dozens of new locomotives. Within five years, the number of railway journeys is supposed to double to 70 million annually. The government has approved the construction of the first line (the Red Line) of the Tel Aviv light railway, and the expansion of the Jerusalem light railway. Still to come is the Metronit project between Haifa and the krayot, in which 90 high capacity buses will run on a BRT (bus rapid transit) system, and the BRT North project planned for the Sharon towns, Kfar Sava, Ra'anana, and Herzliya.
Budgets for public transport are growing not just in absolute terms, but also in terms of the proportion of total investment in transport. According to Ministry of Finance figures, spending on public transport as a proportion of the total transport budget will reach 63% in 2012, compared with just 53% in 2009. The figure includes, for example, NIS 1.1 billion to be invested this year in the Jezreel Valley Railway project and the Acre-Karmiel railway line, as part of the Netivei Yisrael (Israel Routes) program; NIS 3 billion for Israel Railways; and NIS 3.5 billion in subsidies granted by the state to Israel Railways and the bus companies.
White elephants in the periphery
All this is fine on paper, but what's happening on the ground? This is where the picture becomes less bright. The projects in the periphery are proceeding rapidly and on schedule, but in the city centers it's a different matter. The extension of the Jerusalem Light Rail is being held up by legal disputes between the state and the line's franchisee. Construction of new lines has not yet been budgeted. The Metronit project in Haifa is more than NIS 400 million over budget, and as a result it has been decided to postpone the start of operations from September this year to March 2013. The Sharon BRT tender has also been delayed, and the initiative to publish a tender for the future routing of the Tel Aviv light railway has been shelved.
The rolling stock tender for the Tel Aviv light railway has been frozen. Investigations instigated by the Ministry of Finance into complaints and suspicions of irregularities will probably prevent the publications of operating tenders for the project before 2013.
This is where we come to the big question: Are all these huge investments in transport infrastructure aimed at the right target? Has the best way been chosen of changing the dismal reality? Conversations with transport experts, public transport managers, and senior government officials past and present give rise to a disturbing feeling. The government's money and efforts are directed towards the wrong target. For all the importance of bringing the periphery closer to the center of the country, the burning problem does not lie there but in the central Dan region.
One number, one digit, illustrates the size of the problem. In just three years' time, the average speed of vehicles at the entrance to Tel Aviv from the direction of Rishon LeZion and Ashdod will be 7 kilometers per hour. Drivers coming from the east, from the direction of Jersualem and Moddiin, will crawl at 8 kilometers per hour, while those arriving from the north, from the direction of Herzliya, Ra'anan, and other communities in the Sharon, will sail along at 10 kilometers per hour, jogging speed.
These projections, based on a model of national demand maintained by the Matat consultancy for the Ministry of Transport, may sound gloomy, but it could certainly be that they are over-optimistic given the higher than expected growth in mileage. It is likely that the projections of the speed, sorry, slowness, of travel at the entrances to Tel Aviv in 2015 are already materializing on the asphalt lanes. The damage to the economy caused by the traffic congestion is estimated by the Ministry of Finance at NIS 20 billion annually, double the cost of constructing a light rail line.
Not sexy enough
Even if you look hard, you won’t find a word in the Trajtenberg report on the need to build new roads from the periphery to the center, nor on a terrible shortage of rail lines from the Galilee and Negev settlements to the Dan region, but that is exactly where giant budgets are going. Urban public transport, unfortunately, is not a sexy subject for Israel's elected representatives. Urban projects are too complex, and arouse too much criticism from interested parties, pressure groups, and the public at large.
It's no coincidence that the minister of transport and the prime minister absented themselves from the inauguration of the first line of the Jerusalem Light Rail a year ago. It's no coincidence that they float promises about a light rail or underground in the Dan region, but prefer to talk about a railway to Kiryat Shemona and Eilat. Let them give photo ops cutting ribbons against a background of intersections dipped in the remains of a rural landscape. Give them impressive placards announcing new roads, and platforms from which to make declarations about bring the periphery closer to the center. Billions have been poured into extending the Cross Israel Highway southwards, northwards, and north-eastwards. Further billions are earmarked for constructing rail lines to Karmiel, Sderot, and Afula. The travel time from Kfar Tavor to Tel Aviv will be cut almost to one hour.
And then, when they get there, the travelers will be stuck in the huge traffic jams at the entry to the metropolis. At that point, they will be left to their own devices.
The first and most important recommendation by the Trajtenberg committee under transport was the construction of a mass transit system in the metropolitan Tel Aviv area, and after that in Jerusalem and Haifa. "Only a mass transit system." the committee stresses, "can become established as a real alternative to the private vehicle and deal with the phenomenon of congestion." This is not a matter of another light rail line or another couple of public transport lanes, but the construction of "a hierarchical public network of inter-urban railway lines, feeder and complementary bus routes, and an urban network that will enable passengers to make efficient use of public transport from door to door."
In reality, while in Tel Aviv they are sunk in disputes over the construction of the Red Line from Petah Tikva to Bat Yam, a plan for the construction of seven lines, some rail, some BRT, that need to be built in the metropolis by 2025, has been waiting for implementation for years. This is the most complex, large, and costly transport project in the country's history. It will probably require legislation. The decision to go ahead should have been made a long time ago, but, for more than a year, the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Transport have been arguing over the question of how to finance this giant project, the total cost of which is estimated at NIS 50 billion. The early election is likely to delay this initial decision for another entire year.
As mentioned, the Trajtemberg committee recommended the immediate setting up of a metropolitan transport authority for the Dan region, just like in every comparable city in the Western world. This authority was supposed, among other things, to bring to an end the absurd situation in which every placement of a street sign requires the personal approval of a Ministry of Transport official.
The authority is meant to bring about comprehensive reform of public transport, which suffers from a surfeit of different arrangements and agreements signed with the country's seventeen public transport operators. This recommendation too is a long way from implementation, and the credit for that belongs solely to the minister of transport.
Yisrael Katz made sure of carrying out a targeted killing of the intention, as part of the metropolitan authority plan, of transferring powers today vested in the Ministry of Transport to the local authorities. In other recommendations, the Trajtenberg committee set out a series of steps for improving the standard of service of public transport, among other things through integrating information systems and smart travel cards, raising the capacity and frequency of lines to the periphery, and giving discounts and benefits to target groups to encourage them to travel more on public transport. These recommendations too have not passed the test of successful implementation.
"The government of Israel has lost the ability to carry out large, complex projects," says former director general of the Ministry of Finance Yarom Ariav sorrowfully. "It's sad to see how the Western world, chiefly Europe, is so far ahead of us in carrying out complex projects, in aspects such as bureaucratic coordination and sophisticated financing methods," says Ariav, who heads the Israeli office of CFL, a small French bank that specializes in infrastructure finance.
What is holding up projects such as the light rail?
""The Dan region mass transit system has to deal with a large number of authorities and government ministries. Projects suffer from cumbersome bureaucracy, uncertainty, budgetary overruns, and inefficient execution. This brings us to mediocre, or worse, capability of carrying out projects. It seems that we have to reorganize differently, and cooperate more with the private sector. We have a lot to learn from foreign examples."
Perhaps the government fails to give sufficient priority to investment in public transport?
"At the Ministry of Finance, at least when I was there, there was complete understanding of the importance of investment in public transport, but there are budgetary constraints, and the Ministry of Finance doesn't always dictate how things will go. Ministers of Transport are often measured according how many road signs they have set up announcing new road construction projects. I don't say it isn't important to invest in roads, but, from the point of view of balance, there should be a greater bias in favor of mass transit. The model that suits Israel is the model of small European countries where the emphasis is on very efficient and advanced mass transit projects, based on the integration of several systems with one another."
Does the construction of a high-speed railways to Eilat or Kiryat Shemona come at the expense of a light rail in Tel Aviv?
"We have to avoid investment in pointless projects, without necessarily referring to the projects you mentioned. When resources are limited, then investment in one project necessarily comes at the expense of some other budgetary expenditure."
CFL was involved in, among other things, bringing France's giant national railway company, SNCF, into the Haifa Metronit project. Ariav believes such a project could suit other cities. "From the point of view of railway development, work is taking place on the right lines today. We have to make progress with the bus lines, and there are certainly more places, Beersheva for example, that are suitable for high-capacity bus lines."
Published by Globes [online], Israel business news - www.globes-online.com - on October 25, 2012
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