Why does it always seem to happen that the most embarrassing turns of events catch Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on visits to foreign leaders? This time it was President François Hollande's turn. Netanyahu flew to Paris this week, only to be greeted on landing with newspaper headlines proclaiming that the head of his election campaign team, Minister of Communications Moshe Kahlon, was weighing setting up a new political party. Nothing will be remembered of the joint press conference apart from Netanyahu's attempt to disparage Kahlon's credibility. And perhaps also the fact that Netanyahu's French is not at all bad.
Anyone who saw the serious expression on Netanyahu's face in those moments ruled out all the conspiracy theories circulating in Israel that the two were in cahoots and planning to steal votes and eventually form a joint party. If that's what a conspiracy looks like, then the planning was really bad. Netanyahu looked very concerned. Some even diagnosed his state as hysterical. As though in another minute he would swim home. At the press briefing he didn't say a thing. If he had, he would probably have mumbled "Help!". This is not how he imagined the election campaign when he decided to bring it forward.
Declarations of political moves usually generate enthusiasm and attract a lot of voters in the first few weeks. Today marks just one week from the dramatic announcement of a joint Likud-Yisrael Beytenu ticket, and it has already lost five projected Knesset seats. A poll by the Rafi Smith institute for "Globes" in mid-week finds that, despite the successful meeting of the Likud central committee from Netanyahu's point of view, Likud-Beytenu has dropped to 37 seats. Likud and Yisrael Beytenu rushed to publish announcements of support, but it turns out that only 67% of Likud voters say they support the idea, while among Yisrael Beytenu voters the proportion is 73%.
Only two weeks ago, the "Globes" survey gave the two parties a total of 42 seats. The cliché that in politics the whole is less than the sum of the parts is proving true in this case. A third of the respondents (29%) in the survey think that the idea is not especially successful and oppose it.
When a party headed by Kahlon is added to the equation, the business looks a lot worse, and Netanyahu and Liberman barely take 32 seats. Even if Kahalon is just enjoying the ruckus and in the end decides not to set up a party, he has caused grave damage to Likud. When the person who is chairman of the Likud central committee and chairman of the election campaign gets up and throws stones at the glass walls surrounding him, the broken glass falls inwards as well. Kahlon, who continues to hold both roles, is fanning the flames by his silence, and as long as this possibility remains alive, the person whose election team he heads is also harmed.
Contrary to speculation that moderate Likud voters would take alarm at the tie-up with Yisrael Beytenu and decamp to the center and to Yair Lapid's Yesh Atid party, Yesh Atid has lost seats since the previous poll. It seems that the new figures on the party's list of candidates have not managed to generate enthusiasm among voters, and Lapid's attempt to present a diplomatic agenda, precisely in the week in which we received further proof that the potential lies in social policy, became an irrelevance.
While Labor leader Shelly Yachimovich has broken through the glass ceiling to reach 22 seats, Kadima, on three, is steadily disappearing. There is a high probability that, were elections held today, it would not pass the minimum vote threshold.
If the Knesset election were held today, for which party would you vote?
Results in numbers of seats for each party (results of previous poll, in mid-October, in parentheses):
Likud-Yisrael Beytenu 37 (42)
Labor 22 (18)
Yesh Atid 13 (14)
Shas 11 (12)
Arab parties 7 (7)
United Torah Judaism 6
Ichud Leumi and Habayit Hayehudi 9 (9)
Meretz 5 (4)
Kadima 3 (3)
Ha'atzmaut 2 (2)
Hadash 4 (4)
Published by Globes [online], Israel business news - www.globes-online.com - on November 1, 2012
© Copyright of Globes Publisher Itonut (1983) Ltd. 2012