In view of the dizzying pace and seesaw course of the coalition crisis, “Globes” examined public opinion on issues relating to the crisis. Before reporting the results, however, two things should be stressed: the usual reminder that the flash survey results are valid as of the survey date, and the fact that these findings reflect an initial response, soon after the events, in a state of great political uncertainty. In many cases, this response is likely to undergo significant change at a later time, when the claims and versions are evaluated and the public’s positions are crystallized.
The questions in the flash survey, which were revised up until the last minute to reflect the rapidly changing events, take into account these limitations, which should be kept in mind when interpreting the results.
Q: Is there any justification for the government crisis over the state budget, which caused the national unity government to fall?
A: Justified 40%; unjustified 53%; no response; 7%.
Those who voted for (Prime Minister Ariel) Sharon in 2001: Justified 29%; unjustified 65%.
Those who voted for (former Prime Minister Ehud) Barak in 2001: Justified 54%; unjustified 43%.
Those not voting in 2001: Justified 46%; not justified 39%.
Those justifying the crisis outnumber those condemning it among Labor Party supporters. It can be assumed that these people, at least, pin their hopes for a change on the crisis.
Q: The Knesset is currently debating the state budget for next year. As far as you know, is the budget proper or improper for Israel’s situation and needs?
A: Proper 19%; improper 55%; no response 26%.
A large majority of the public does not accept the arguments of the Minister of Finance and the government majority that budget under discussion is the best now for the country. For each budget supporter, there are 2.9 opposed.
Q: What is better for Israel now early elections or the creation of a narrow government?
A: Early elections 42%; a narrow government 36%; no response 22%.
Q: Who is a more suitable Likud candidate for prime minister: Sharon or (former Prime Minister Benjamin) Netanyahu?
A: Sharon 49%; Netanyahu 21%; equally suitable 6%; neither suitable 20%; no response 4%.
In the preceding survey two weeks ago: Sharon 41%; Netanyahu 22%.
Those planning to vote Likud: Sharon 56%; Netanyahu 27%.
Among both the general and Likud party public, Sharon’s behavior in the current political crisis has gained him support, while Netanyahu, who has been out of the headlines, has lost. The question is whether these figures are a sign of a long-term trend, or a momentary and reversible change.
Q: Among (Minister of Defense Benjamin) Ben-Eliezer, (Haifa Mayor Amram) Mitzna, and (MK Haim) Ramon, who is best suited to be the Labor Party candidate for prime minister?
A: Ben-Eliezer 25%; Mitzna 23%; Ramon 19%.
In the preceding survey two weeks ago: Ben-Eliezer 25%; Mitzna 22%; Ramon 18%.
Those planning to vote for the Labor Party: Ben-Eliezer 22%; Mitzna 46%; Ramon 28%.
While the general public’s view of the three candidates is more or less unchanged, Labor Party supporters decisively prefer Mitzna to the other two candidates.
Q: Regardless of who heads the Likud and Labor Party lists, for whom do you plan to vote in the next Knesset elections?
(The table presents the responses translated intoKnesset seats. The current number of seats for each party is given in parentheses.)
| Likud | 34-35 | (19) |
| Labor | 17-18 | (26) |
| Shas | 8-9 | (17) |
| Meretz | 7 | (10) |
| Shinui | 9 | (6) |
| National Religious Party | 4-5 | (5) |
| United Torah Judaism | 5 | (5) |
| Ihud Leumi | 6-7 | (8) |
| Yisrael Be'aliya | 3 | (6) |
| One Nation | 0-2 | (2) |
| Arab lists | 10* | (10) |
| Undecided | 13 | |
*The Arab lists figure is carried over from the previous Globes-Smith survey published on October 20, which included the Arab population.
Two weeks ago: Likud 35 Knesset members; Labor 17; Shas 8; Meretz 7; Shinui 9; National Religious Party 5; United Torah Judaism 5; National Unity (HaIchud HaLeumi) & Israel Our Home (Yisrael Beiteinu) 6; Yisrael Ba’aliya 3; One Nation 0-2; Arab lists 10; no opinion 14.
The drama of the national unity government’s dissolution has had no immediate effect on the voters preferences.
The survey was conducted on Wednesday night, October 30 by Hanoch and Rafi Smith among 415 respondents, representing Israel’s adult Jewish population. The maximum sample error is 4.8%.
Published by Globes [online] - www.globes.co.il - on October 31, 2002