What is to be done with the West Bank and Gaza?

Dr. Norman Bailey

There can be a solution, at least for the West Bank, if the Sunni Arab states put pressure on the Palestinians.

The title of Lenin's famous pamphlet provides us with our theme this week: what is to be done with the longest-running sore in the Middle East and among the longest in the world?

I refer, of course, to the ongoing soap opera of Israeli-Palestinian relations and the status of the West Bank and Gaza. Recently there has been a flurry of new activity concerning this dispute, including a farcical French initiative which provided an opportunity for the foreign ministers of a number of states to waste their time in Paris, while pretending to contemplate a solution in the absence of the parties involved! This has to be the most ridiculous diplomatic initiative of recent history and one hopes that it is simply an indication of nostalgia for the Dadaist art movement of the 1920's.

However, the involvement of Egypt is another story entirely. In the first place the Egyptians have a direct stake in the issue, which involves its neighborhood. Secondly, the Egyptians have so far done the logical thing, unlike the French, beginning the process by consulting directly with the parties involved: the PA and Israel. Thirdly, the Egyptian initiative follows on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's sphinx-like statement about the now almost-forgotten Saudi initiative offering formal recognition of Israel by the Arab countries when and if Israel and the PA make peace.

Finally, Israel, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states agree that the current leadership of the PA must go and be replaced by figures noted for their efficiency and honesty - figures such as former security chief Dahlan and former prime minister Fayyad. This shows great realism since the current leadership has neither the desire to nor the capability of negotiating anything at all.

This said, is there any realistic chance that in fact an arrangement can be made? The answer is a firm yes and no. Yes in the case of the West Bank and no in the case of Gaza. A decent PA leadership can and just might, under pressure from the Sunni powers, make a constitutional arrangement that would provide it with a state and Israel with security and diplomatic recognition by Arab countries from Morocco to the UAE.

Gaza is another story entirely. Hamas is a terrorist organization, not just a collection of incompetent kleptocrats like Abbas and the other 39 thieves. It is sustained by Iran, now that the two have made up after Hamas made the mistake of supporting the opposition to Assad in Syria. Also, Hamas is not the only terrorist organization in Gaza, but is accompanied by Palestinian Islamic Jihad and now a branch of Islamic State. In other words, a small, compact nest of vipers.

The Sunni powers can make a difference in a possible resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian dispute in the West Bank. In the case of Gaza, the only possibility is of a resolution is the violent overthrow of Hamas and its allies. In other words, the two situations must be separated and dealt with differently or a settlement is simply out of the question for the time being.

But at least with the Egyptian initiative there is something to negotiate and some hope of success. It should be followed up vigorously but cautiously by Jerusalem, while hoping that the French concentrate on licking their wounds after their defeat by mighty Portugal in the European football championships.

Norman A. Bailey, Ph.D., is Professor of Economics and National Security, The National Security Studies Center, University of Haifa, and Adjunct Professor of Economic Statecraft, The Institute of World Politics, Washington, DC. He was formerly with the US National Security Council and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence.

Published by Globes [online], Israel business news - www.globes-online.com - on July 14, 2016

© Copyright of Globes Publisher Itonut (1983) Ltd. 2016

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