Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd. (Nasdaq: TEVA; TASE: TEVA) will present results of a clinical trial of its oral multiple sclerosis treatment Laquinimod at the 63rd American Academy of Neurology (AAN) conference in Hawaii next week. Teva and Sweden's Active Biotech AB (Nasdaq; OMX: ACTI) are developing Laquinimod.
In December 2010, Teva reported success in the Phase III clinical trial of Laquinimod. Patients treated with 0.6 mg daily oral Laquinimod experienced a statistically significant reduction in annualized relapse rate compared to placebo. Additional clinical endpoints, including significant reduction in disability progression, as measured by Expanded Disability Severity Scale (EDSS), were also achieved.
Teva did not publish the full statistical results of the clinical trial, which will be presented at the AAN conference. Teva will present the amount of reduction in the annualized relapse rate and the reduction in disability progression as measured by EDSS.
Several analysts covering Teva have mentioned the presentation in their latest reports. Clal Finance analyst Jonathan Kreizman and medical advisor Dr. Yoav Keidar offer three scenarios. The positive scenario is a reduction of at least 30% in the annualized relapse rate and a 40% reduction in disability progression or improvement in the EDSS among severe multiple sclerosis patients. In this scenario, Kreizman predicts $2 billion in annual Laquinimod sales.
The neutral scenario is a 25% reduction in the annualized relapse rate and a 30% reduction in disability progression, in which case Kreizman predicts $1 billion in annual Laquinimod sales. The negative scenario is for a 20% reduction in disability progression, in which case he predicts up to $500 million in annual Laquinimod sales.
Bernstein Research analyst Dr. Ronny Gal says that, based on his survey, most Teva investors expect a 26-29% reduction in the annualized relapse rate and a 30-40% reduction in disability progression. Gal personally expects a 26-29% reduction in the annualized relapse rate and a 30-34% reduction in disability progression.
Teva's share price closed at $50.77 on Nasdaq yesterday, giving a market cap of $47.71 billion. The share price fell 0.1% by mid-afternoon on the TASE today to NIS 175.40.
Published by Globes [online], Israel business news - www.globes-online.com - on April 7, 2011
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