Professor Nouriel Roubini, who is professor of economics at the Stern School of Business at New York University, and one of the most accurate economic forecasters in recent years, continues to adhere to his bearish projections.
The annual forecast published yesterday by RGE Monitor, an economic consultancy controlled by Rubini, sees economic growth falling to 1% in Israel next year, and the possibility that the economy may actually shrink.
RGE Monitor's projection is for negative global growth of 0.5% in 2009. This is a far more pessimistic forecast than that of the IMF, whose latest estimate is for 2% positive growth.
According to RGE, the US economy is so far only halfway through the recession that began to manifest itself in December 2007. The firm says this will be the longest recession in the US economy since the Second World War. RGE sees the US economy shrinking by 3.4% in 2009.
RGE admits that this projection is much more pessimistic than that of the consensus among economic forecasters, according to which the US economy will start to recover in the second half of 2009.
RGE says the US recovery, when it does come, will be weaker than is hoped. It will start in 2010, but even then the economy will be far from exploiting its potential.
In the euro zone, RGE sees negative growth of 2.5% in 2009. Here too, RGE's forecast is more pessimistic than the consensus.
Published by Globes [online], Israel business news - www.globes.co.il - on January 15, 2009
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