In the epic struggle going on in the Arab world between secularists, ordinary Muslims and Islamist extremists, and in the Muslim world at large between Sunni and Sh'ia, recent developments have clarified some issues, and obfuscated others.
The Egyptian government has made it clear that it will persecute all manifestations of the Muslim Brotherhood and its offshoots, by adding to the accusations against Brotherhood former president Morsi those of having conspired with the terrorist groups Hezbollah and Hamas. If credible evidence is produced at the trial, it will add fuel to the fires being stoked by secularists throughout the region and convince them even more strongly that the Islamists cannot be trusted with the reins of power under any circumstances.
In Turkey, the Erdogan government's strange behavior, outlined in previous columns, is coming home to roost, particularly its frontal attack on its erstwhile allies the Gulenists. The Gulenist movement, Hizmet, is the true "deep state" in Turkey, having spent decades infiltrating the bureaucracy, the judicial system and the armed forces. The Gulenists are now striking back at the government's proposal to close its schools (its principal activity, and where it recruits and trains is cadres), by having its agents in the judicial system arrest dozens of regime figures, including sons of cabinet ministers, accused of corruption and the president of Halkbank, accused of facilitating Iranian sanctions violations.
In response, Erdogan has dismissed many police chiefs in various cities, including Istanbul, and in speeches has typically been accusing "foreign influences" for causing or supporting the judicial attack on his people, threatening directly the American ambassador. Predictably, after all this the protestors filled Istanbul's Taksim Square again, as in July, but this time protesting government corruption as detailed by the prosecutors.
This story is far from over. Erdogan's regime is seriously threatened and it is not clear if the police will now follow his orders. He can hardly turn to the armed forces, which he spent years defanging, and which in any case are also heavily infiltrated by the Gulenists. When Morsi was overthrown in Cairo, Erdogan protested and was told to mind his own business by the Egyptians. The latter may soon be in the position of congratulating a new government in Ankara.
On the other hand, the Islamists have effectively taken control of the anti-Assad forces in Syria, except for the Kurdish area, so that now that tragic country is faced with a perfect Hobson's choice: Assad/Iran/Hezbollah, or Al-Qaida and allies. Never was Shakespeare's famous line so apt: "A plague on both your houses".
For Israel, and ironically for Wahhabi Saudi Arabia, as well as the Gulf states, the triumph of the secularists is much to be desired. Right now, the secular forces are doing well, but Allah's armies are for from admitting final defeat.
Norman A. Bailey, Ph.D., is Adjunct Professor of Economic Statecraft at The Institute of World Politics, Washington, DC, and a researcher at the Center for National Security Studies, University of Haifa.
Published by Globes [online], Israel business news - www.globes-online.com - on December 24, 2013
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