2014 will be year of change

Forces reshaping the Middle East are coming to a head, with Russia taking a close interest, and the West seemingly indifferent.

As 2013 morphs into 2014, at least 80% of all commentaries will refer to some version of the phrase "turning point". Of course, the world, or at least parts of it are always at a turning point, but the tired cliché still is ubiquitous.

Nevertheless, at least in the Middle East, 2014 is sure to witness fundamental developments if not definitive changes in the strategic architecture of this frustrated and frustrating part of the world.

Two epic struggles are underway as the new year begins:

In two of the four most important Muslim countries of the region, Egypt and Turkey, the secularists are violently confronting the Islamic fundamentalist extremists. In Egypt the military government has declared the Muslim Brotherhood a terrorist organization, something Nasser, Sadat and Mubarak never did; arrested its entire leadership and seized its assets. The charges against former Brotherhood president Morsi have been changed to treason, due to his alleged dealings with Hamas, Hezbollah and other terrorist organizations. It is clear that General al-Sisi has decided that the Brotherhood must be totally crushed.

In Turkey, multiple seriously-mistaken decisions by Prime Minister Erdogan have led to a powerful coalition now dedicated to his overthrow, uniting (for that purpose, at least) Kemalist secularists and the Gulenist community, in a frontal collision with the regime. Government ministers and members of the governing party in parliament have resigned and the demonstrators are back on the streets. Most significantly, the Turkish army has proclaimed its "neutrality" and President Abdullah Gul has been making conciliatory noises that may signify a possible non-violent transfer of power.

The other two countries, Iran and Saudi Arabia, themselves both fundamentalist regimes, are implacable enemies, for sectarian reasons (Sh'ia vs. Sunni). The result is an incongruous alliance of the Saudi theocracy with the aggressive Egyptian secular regime, as would undoubtedly also be the case with a successor government, if any, in Turkey.

The West appears strangely oblivious to all of this, either through ignorance or disinterest, especially the United States. The only two exceptions are France and Russia. The French have little capacity to intervene on their own. The Russians are engaged in helping Assad so as to protect their naval base in Tartus. The Chinese, in the meantime, who can get their oil from many sources, have concluded that they can get the technology they so badly need only in Silicon Valley or in Israel, and are acting accordingly, as witness the recent visit of the foreign minister.

All of this combined with continued bloody chaos in Syria, Iraq and Lebanon, and an increasingly assertive Kurdish community, will make for a most interesting 2014.

Norman A. Bailey, Ph.D., is Adjunct Professor of Economic Statecraft at The Institute of World Politics, Washington, DC, and a researcher at the Center for National Security Studies, University of Haifa.

Published by Globes [online], Israel business news - www.globes-online.com - on December 31, 2013

© Copyright of Globes Publisher Itonut (1983) Ltd. 2013

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