Following up on last week's column, here are other implications of the six-power-Iran agreement that have been largely overlooked:
Iran will begin pumping oil again and exporting every drop that it can in order to raise more funds (along with the 100+ billion frozen dollars to be released by the US). This will put more downward pressure on the oil price and play havoc with the US and Canadian fracking operations that were just beginning to replace foreign oil in the American market and restore US energy independence after many decades of decline.
The Technology and Security website points out that the release of the frozen funds, among its many other effects such as increasing Iranian funding of proxy groups throughout the Middle East and beyond, as well as improving life for the Iranian population and thus increasing the regime's popularity, will also permit the purchase of foreign military equipment, including Russian advanced stealth fighter-bombers (the F-50), production of which has been stalled for lack of funds on the part of the Russians. Two for the price of one--both Russia and Iran will greatly improve their air defense and offense capabilities in a way that would have been impossible had there been no agreement, or even better, no negotiations in the first place. Iran can't buy or sell military equipment for five years you say, according to the agreement? Okay, let's assume for the sake of argument that Iran actually fulfills its part of the agreement (an heroic assumption). It takes a good while to produce many sophisticated aircraft, so until delivery and final payment no transaction has actually taken place, right?
But wait, it gets better! Buried on page 142 of the agreement, in one of the numerous appendices, is the following clause: "Cooperation through training and workshops to strengthen Iran's ability to protect against, and respond to nuclear security threats, including sabotage, as well as to enable effective sustainable nuclear security and physical protection systems."
This has to be the worst international agreement in history. At least Chamberlain and Daladier at Munich didn't promise to help Germany perfect its defensive systems. If all of this were put into a novel it would have been justifiably ridiculed. But this is not fiction, this is what the world will be living with for the foreseeable future.
And Congress can do nothing effective about it. The trade sanctions will be removed by the UN . and the EU before Congress has even studied the agreement in the next sixty days. Iran will be able to get anything it can pay for. Which brings up the question of financial sanctions on Iranian individuals, banks and organizations, as well as the famous frozen funds. Well, what about them? They were all, without exception, imposed by executive action and they therefore can be removed by executive action, and that is undoubtedly exactly what will happen, whatever Congress does or does not do. Has everyone forgotten the $12 billon that Obama released as part of the inducement back in November of 2013 for the Iranians to enter into negotiations? He didn't ask anyone's permission to do that then, nor will he now.
Israel and its new informal allies, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States are on their own and will have to depend on their own resources and strategies. More on that next week.
Which makes it all the sadder that the Israeli political system and its dysfunctionality caused Jordan to withdraw from purchasing Israeli gas, because of the constant delays; most recently the failure on the part of the government coalition to pass a bill assigning the authority to approve the agreement between the state and the private companies to the National Security cabinet.
Norman A. Bailey, Ph.D., is Adjunct Professor of Economic Statecraft at The Institute of World Politics, Washington, DC, and teaches at the Center for National Security Studies and Geostrategy, University of Haifa.
Published by Globes [online], Israel business news - www.globes-online.com - on July 21, 2015
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