If Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu were to accept US Secretary of State John Kerry's framework proposals for an agreement with the Palestinians, and in response to hardliners in the Likud set up a centrist party with MKs from Avigdor Liberman's Yisrael Beitenu, Tzipi Livni's Hatnua, and maybe Likud ministers Tzahi Hanegbi and Yuval Steinitz, it would win 27 Knesset seats, according to the latest Rafi Smith Institute poll for "Globes". The rump Likud would win 16 Knesset seats.
Netanyahu ought to be flattered by this finding, since it shows his brand to be strong and promises a sweet victory over the Likud hardliners, but in fact, the figures do not encourage a break-up. The survey found that were elections held now, the Likud-Beitenu alliance would win 35 Knesset seats.
Ariel Sharon, who split the Likud, was a risk-taker. Nothing in Netanyahu's biography suggests that he believes in change or revolutions. The chances that he will split the Likud are low, given his history and personality. Besides the fact that such an act would require leadership, personal strength, cool nereves, and decisiveness, there are too many uncontrolable variables in such a split. Splitting the Likud would be risky, and Netanyahu does not like taking drastic and risky steps. He is deeply suspicious and will not put his political fate into the hands of Liberman and Livni, who want to succeed him. He knows very well that just because you are paranoid it doesn't mean that they aren't out to get you.
According to the February Rafi Smith poll, Likud-Beitenu would win 35 Knesset seats, down from 37 seats in the January poll. Yesh Atid and Habayit Hayehudi both pick up two seats to win a projected 14 Knesset and 12 seats, respectively. The Labor Party is unchanged at 17 Knesset seats, Shas is unchanged at 11 seats, United Torah Judaism is down one seat to seven seats, and Meretz is also down one seat, to eight seats, Kadima has nothing, and the Arab parties are unchanged.
Published by Globes [online], Israel business news - www.globes-online.com - on February 27, 2014
© Copyright of Globes Publisher Itonut (1983) Ltd. 2014