Public support for Prime Minister Ariel Sharon is falling. Polls have asked about Sharon's performance as prime minister several times since he took up office. In December 2001, 65% of the respondents said he was doing well or very well, while 34% said he was not doing well or doing badly.
In October 2002 the proportion of satisfied respondents fell to 59%, while the proportion of dissatisfied respondents rose to 39%. A turnaround took place in December 2003: 44% of respondents were satisfied with his performance, while 53% were dissatisfied.
The disclosures and public statements by prosecutors, the police, and the press about the various scandals and investigations of the Sharon family - Ariel, Omri, and Gilad - have had an effect. The public has absorbed what it could. To borrow a phrase from the stock exchange, the effect is already discounted in the price. It is a fact that Sharon's poll ratings remained unchanged between August and December, despite the storm in the press and all the talk.
Responses to the question, "How has Sharon performed as prime minister?" were as follows: 44% of the respondents said well or very well, the same as in August. The proportion of dissatisfied respondents was 53% in both surveys.
Q: How has Sharon performed as prime minister?
A: Very well - 9%; quite well - 35%; poorly - 31%; badly - 22%; no opinion - 3%
The general opinion, including among those close to Sharon, is that unless something significant occurs, the affairs investigations have blown over. Something significant could be a new financial scandal, or an indictment against the prime minister personally, provided that it is not over mere procedural matters, but serious money from tycoons reaching Sharon's associates and family.
Sharon continues to rely on the political center, a little to the left and right of himself. 63-64% of Likud supporters, 24% of Labor supporters, 40-44% of the secular population, and 52-61% of the religious population continue to say that Sharon has done well or very well in response to two key questions: "In your opinion, how has the prime minister been handling the war on terrorism?"; and "In your opinion, how has Sharon performed as prime minister?"
Sharon was elected prime minister when a large block of centrist-left voters, disappointed by then-Prime Minister Ehud Barak, decided to gamble of Sharon's slogans of security and peace. This block has slowly begun to abandon him, after realizing that the gap between word and deed was wide. In the November 2001 survey, responses to the question, "In your opinion, how has Prime Minister Sharon handled the war on terrorism and your personal security?" were as follows: 54% said well or very well; 46% said not well or badly.
Two years later, in December 2003, the corresponding answers were: Well or very well - 45%; not well or badly - 48%. In other words, support for Sharon has fallen, the gap between positive and negative grades has shrunk, and the majority no longer supports him. Nevertheless, Sharon still has a large block of centrist supporters.
The separation fence may be the factor preserving Sharon's support in the political center. The public wants the separation fence, and is prepared to give Sharon a base to stay in office and build it. 60% of respondents support building the fence along its current route, 23% want the fence to be built along a different route, and only 9% want it demolished.
Q: Recently, there has been criticism in the world about the route of the separation fence, up to and including demands that it be demolished. In your opinion, what should Israel do?
A: Continue building the separation fence along the route decided upon - 60%; change the route and build only along the Green Line - 23%; demolish the separation fence - 9%; no opinion -8%.
This public also supports the comments about dismantling some settlements, and the establishment of a new defense line combined with disengagement from the Palestinians. This explains the similar results of the August and December surveys, despite the terrorist attacks during this period. It also explains the 60% support level for unilateral measures. It should be pointed out that 57% of the public does not believe that Sharon will carry out the unilateral measures he is talking about. Nonetheless, 39% of the public believes he will. Attention should be paid to one detail: Likud supporters are equally split between those who believe Sharon will carry unilateral measures and those who do not.
Q: Do you support Sharon plan for unilateral measures, including dismantling settlements?
A: Strongly support - 32%; support - 28%; do not support - 11%; strongly oppose - 20%; no opinion - 9%.
Q: Do you believe that Sharon will carry out unilateral measures, including dismantling settlements?
A: Strongly believe - 6%; believe - 33%; don’t really believe - 34%; don’t believe at all - 23%; no opinion - 4%.
On the economic front, Minister of Finance Benjamin Netanyahu has failed to convince the public that the recession is over. although there has been some movement in the polls. In August, 31% of respondents said they thought that Israel would emerge from the recession in the coming year, or within 1-2 years. In December, 35%, held this opinion, although only 9% thought the recession would end in the coming year. It should be noted that the higher the income level, the greater the proportion of respondents who say they are optimistic about the economy. 41% of above average income earners say they are optimistic.
Q: In your opinion, when will Israel emerge from the economic crisis and return to the path of recovery and growth?
A: Within the coming year - 9%; within 1-2 years - 26%; within 2-5 years - 28%; over five years - 16%; never - 6%; no opinion - 15%.
The corresponding answers in August 2003 were: Within the coming year - 6%; within 1-2 years - 25%; within 2-5 years - 36%; over five years - 13%; never - 4%; no opinion - 16%.
70% have computers
Q: Do you have a computer at home, and if so, did you buy a new computer in the past year and/or upgrade your current one?
A: No computer - 30%; has a computer, but did not buy a new one or upgraded the current one - 43%; bought a new computer - 12%; upgraded - 13%; bought a new computer and upgraded - 2%.
Among the 70% of the respondents with a computer, 61% neither bought a new one or upgraded their current computer, while 39% either bought a new one and/or upgraded their current computer, a major proportion.
Published by Globes [online] - www.globes.co.il - on January 5, 2004