Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's plan to evacuate the Gaza Strip settlements has become a legitimate part of the public agenda. Criticism from both the Left and Right does not alter the fact that Sharon has finally launched a process that creates a diplomatic horizon for Israel and the Palestinians.
It is now clear that this is not a Sharon media trick, but a plan that he is determined to carry out sooner or later. There is no lack of criticism, but the truth is that Sharon had no alternative for breaking the deadlock. The nice idea of the Roadmap had made not an iota of progress for the simple reason that the Palestinian Authority had not shown any willingness to stop terrorism.
A unilateral withdrawal will create a ray of hope that additional measures will follow and open the path to a diplomatic process culminating in a peace treaty. It turns out that most Israeli citizens support this, and Sharon will probably succeed in obtaining Knesset approval.
Sharon is scheduled to go to Washington in mid-March, and raise the subject of financial aid for the evacuation with President George W. Bush. In principle, the Americans oppose financing the evacuation of settlements by Israel, since they opposed their construction in the first place. In practice, a way will probably be found to bypass this obstacle.
Bush will not miss the opportunity to finally achieve some real progress toward resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Bush knows well that there has been no progress in implementing the Roadmap, and that Sharon can present his disengagement plan as an integral part of the Roadmap, thereby improving the chance for a breakthrough towards a permanent regional solution.
At the same time, the Israeli government can approach the EU to share in financing the evacuation. The EU, which has long opposed the Israeli presence in the territories, has a clear interest in Sharon implementing his disengagement plan for the Gaza Strip. In addition, the evacuation of the Gaza Strip will save hundreds of millions of shekels a year in defense spending.
Evacuating the Gaza Strip will generate optimism that a regional diplomatic settlement is achievable, optimism that the Israeli economy requires above all else. Israel's economy has been stuck in a severe recession ever since the outbreak of the intifada in September 2000, and has only recently begun to emerge from it. Optimism and dreams of peace in the foreseeable future will drive the economic engine, bring back foreign investment and tourism, as well as the hope that Israel will again become an attractive destination for immigrants.
The first signs of an improvement in Israel's standing in the world can already be seen. Sharon's disengagement plan from the Gaza Strip has almost erased the criticism leveled at him at home and abroad. He is no longer the stubborn prime minister stymieing every chance for negotiations, but the prime minister willing to take political risks. Sharon's plan took the Americans and Europeans by surprise, and they can no longer claim that Israel is not doing enough to promote the peace process.
Published by Globes [online] - www.globes.co.il - on February 19, 2004