“The Economist Intelligence Unit” (EIU) states that the resignation of Benjamin Netanyahu will bring elections forward to June or July 2006, if the Sharon government is not able to pass the budget by March 2006. The EIU says Netanyahu resigned in order to replace Prime Minister Ariel Sharon. The EIU believes that Netanyahu has the support of 13 of 40 Likud MKs, and that they have the power to bring down the Sharon government by voting against the budget.
The EIU does not rule out the possibility that Sharon will survive with a minority government until the end of its term in late 2006.
The EIU did not miss the chance to criticize Netanyahu. It states that Netanyahu’s resignation, only a week before the evacuation of settlements from the Gaza Strip, was motivated by ideology and his well-known opposition to the disengagement plan, but its timing indicated a degree of political opportunism aimed at maximizes his chances of replacing Sharon if and when elections are brought forward. The caption under a picture of Netanyahu asks, “Netanyahu A man of principle or a political opportunist?”
The EIU does not rule out the following scenarios: Netanyahu will vote against the 2006 budget, which he himself formulated and presented; by March, or possibly even sooner, he will recruit enough support to bring down Sharon in a no-confidence vote, maybe as soon as the start of the Knesset winter session in November; the establishment of a blocking minority in the Likud and Knesset to prevent additional withdrawals from the West Bank, or the launch of the road map.
The EIU says Netanyahu’s resignation is a clear signal of his intentions to take over the Likud and replace Sharon. It adds that Netanyahu carefully timed his resignation before the August 7 cabinet meeting that voted to implement the first stage of the disengagement plan.
Published by Globes [online], Israel business news - www.globes.co.il - on August 10, 2005