In response to Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd.'s (Nasdaq: TEVA; TASE: TEVA) announcement this morning that its Azilect drug retards Parkinson's disease, Psagot Investment House analyst Limor Gruber told Globes" that Azilect sales could reach $150 million this year, and could reach $1 billion or more in a few years. She reiterated her "Outperform" recommendation for the company and target price of $55. Teva closed at $42.50 on Nasdaq yesterday.
Gruber said, "Azilect sales already rose strongly in the fourth quarter. I had predicted $40 million in sales for the fourth quarter. They will probably grow, but it's hard to quantify." Global sales of Azilect totaled $37.5 million in the first quarter of 2008, 50% more than in the corresponding quarter of 2007.
Gruber added that the immediate reason for the increased sales in the fact that US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approval for Azilect for the treatment of Parkinson's disease is only a technical matter, since the drug is already on the market for other indications, and its safety and side effects are known.
Gruber noted, "Doctors also read the studies, and the trial results will be an incentive for them to prescribe Azilect for patients. Presumably, many doctors will now do so."
Gruber cautioned, however, that most of the $4 billion Parkinson's disease market comprises generic drugs, which cost 20-30% of Azilect. This will affect Azilect sales and its ability to win a share of the market from other treatments for the disease.
Gruber said, "It's hard to know how fast Azilect will be adopted and how many prescriptions will be written for it. It's hard to sign off and declare whether sales will exceed $1 billion a year and when they will be exhausted. Although Copaxone sales doubled in the past four years, they rose much faster in the beginning. Its potential may be exhausted by 2011. This scenario conforms to Teva's 20-20 strategy of $20 billion in sales and a 20% profit margin in five years."
Gruber also notes that, assuming that Teva applies to the FDA to approve Azilect for Parkinson's disease by the end of 2008, the procedure could take until the end of 2009. "In 2009, approval of the results might lead to an upward revision in forecasts for Teva for that year, which is currently less than $3 per share," she said.
Gruber added that the timing of the Azilect announcement to last week's announcement by Mylan Laboratories Inc. (NYSE: MYL) and India's Natco Pharma Ltd. (BSE: 524816) to distribute a generic version of Copaxone, was coincidental. "We've been waiting for the Azilect trial results, since Teva announced in its financial report for 2007 that they would be ready within about six months," she said.
Gruber added, "I think that the Azilect trial results should calm investors worried by the Mylan and Natco's announcement about generic Copaxone last week. This was a step in preparation for a situation in which we see Teva launching alternatives to Copaxone so that if its patent expires, someone will be able to produce a generic version of it."
The next big announcement Teva investors are waiting for is the Forte trial results for Copaxone 40 mg tablets, due in mid to late August. Gruber says, "If the results are positive, and I think that they probably will be, Copaxone's patent will be extended by three more years. This will give Teva more time to develop other drugs whose sales will replace Copaxone sales when its patent expires. This is the essence of a company that makes patent protected drugs."
Published by Globes [online], Israel business news - www.globes-online.com - on June 16, 2008
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