We should not be misled by the official Israeli and Palestinian spokesmen - nobody involved in the renewed direct negotiations is really interested in holding them.
The heads of the Palestinian Authority, Abu Mazen and Salam Fayyad, are perhaps the first Palestinian leaders to understand fully that terror attacks do not promote, and even endanger, the Palestinians' national interests. They have not become Zionists, Heaven forbid, but they are also not conducting a double strategy, as Arafat did during the Oslo process in the 90’s, when he condemned terrorism but, in actual fact, did nothing to prevent the attacks, and in certain cases even covertly supported them.
Palestinian Prime Minister Salam Fayyad does not hide his operational plan. He proclaims it day and night. Fayyad has, for several years, worked on building the necessary infrastructure (economic, administrative, political, and defense) for the establishment of a Palestinian state. This activity, which is scheduled to be completed by the end of 2011, is being executed with massive European and American support, with Israel turning a blind eye, and even giving tacit support.
Fayyad has wisely stated that he does not intend to declare a Palestinian state unilaterally, which would embarrass Israel, but that he is only acting to prepare the groundwork for the establishment of a state and to ensure its existence, after the sides come to an agreement. (Whether he adheres to this promise is yet to be seen).
From the point of view of the heads of the Palestinian Authority, holding direct negotiations with Israel is an obstacle to their strategy, and even puts it at risk. This is because, until now, they have been working to achieve their strategic goals with wall-to wall support (to a certain degree even with the support of Hamas), without being asked to pay any price to Israel without signing any agreements, without recognizing Israel's right to exist, and without renouncing “the right of return”, etc. Any significant progress in the direct negotiations with Israel will necessarily result in sharp criticism within the Palestinian arena and their position will be weakened.
On the other side, there is Benjamin Netanyahu, Prime Minister of a right leaning government. Even if he wishes to give these negotiations practical content, it is clear to all that by so doing, he will endanger his government and even the continuation of his regime. Bibi is not one to commit political suicide. He was happy to assist Salam Fayyad in establishing the infrastructure of a Palestinian state in secret. However, he is not interested in overt significant progress in the direct talks with the Palestinians, because of the heavy political price he will pay.
The third player in the arena, the Hamas, is also fearful of the renewal of direct negotiations. The Hamas leadership is striving for legitimacy in the eyes of the world, and for the removal of the blockade on Gaza. Wide-scale terror attacks have not served the immediate interests of Hamas up to now. The Hamas leadership is examining Fayyad's activities in building the infrastructure for a Palestinian state, and instead of openly confronting Fatah in the West Bank, it chooses to prepare its forces there for the time when they will take on Fatah and win, and will pluck the infrastructure already prepared by the Palestinian Authority, like a ripe fruit. So long as Abu Mazen and Fayyad do not pay Israel a political price and do not sign any agreements with it, the Hamas does not wish to violate the status quo.
However, the White House is in a hurry. President Obama wants to produce a political achievement, if possible, before the elections for Congress in November 2010. He is therefore coercing the sides to conduct direct negotiations. Israel and the Palestinians are obeying, despite themselves. Their only desire is to gain enough points to serve them in the propaganda campaign that will follow the collapse of the talks.
The Hamas leadership is not interested at this stage in "breaking the rules" by initiating a wave of suicide attacks. It is anxiously following the opening of the negotiations, and is supporting terror attacks on a limited scale, particularly in the West Bank. These attacks, whether they are initiated by the leadership or are a result of local initiative, serve Hamas's goals and send a warning message of displeasure to the leadership of Fatah, not to deviate from the procedural mandate.
However, if the process that started in Washington appears to be bearing fruit, then the Hamas leadership will remove all impediments and will renew the waves of suicide attacks inside Israel. If that happens, the scope of terrorism will depend on the Israeli and Palestinian security services' ability to locate and thwart the attackers.
Dr. Boaz Ganor is the deputy dean of the Lauder School of Government and Diplomacy at the Interdisciplinary Center Herzliya. He is also the founder and the Executive Director of the International Policy Institute for Counter-Terrorism.
Published by Globes [online], Israel business news - www.globes-online.com - on September 12, 2010
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