Despite economic growth and the rise in the number of people in jobs, the unemployment rate in Israel will rise to an average of 7.3% in 2012 and will reach 7.5-8% in 2013, according to an economic survey released by Bank Leumi today.
Leumi comments on the Central Bureau of Statistics' recent adjustments to the way it calculates labor market figures, saying that "the methodological hiatus in the labor market data series does not arise solely from the addition of military manpower to the sample, but from about 40 different methodological changes, among them a change in the census year on the basis of which the new survey is constructed."
This means, Leumi argues, that it can be concluded that errors in the survey explain only about a third of the jump in the level of unemployment in the transition to the new format (from 5.4% in the old survey to 6.7% in the new one).
Under the new format, unemployment in March averaged 6.9%, compared with 6.5% in February.
"Looking ahead, seasonal adjustments are likely to cause high volatility in the new monthly series of labor market data for the next few years. Only after a series of 3-5 years of figures is accumulated will it be possible to corect the seasonal adjustment and adjust it fully to the characteristics of the new sample," Leumi's survey concludes.
Published by Globes [online], Israel business news - www.globes-online.com - on May 3, 2012
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