After two months of sirens and shelters, people in Israel just want quiet. They may not be happy at the results of Operation Protective Edge, and they may blame Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for responding feebly to the rocket attacks, but they are in no hurry to replace the country's leadership. A Rafi Smith survey for "Globes" shows that 74% of the public do not think that the results of the operation should mean elections. The public is venting its sense of collective humiliation on Netanyahu in the polls. Support for the prime minister is falling, criticism of him is growing, but the public is not demanding his head. It prefers a stable regime to political uncertainty. It is tired of politicians' promises, and prefers to let off steam, but again to vote Netanyahu.
Despite the in-house mud-slinging, only 6% of Likud voters would like to replace Netanyahu. The other 94% see no worthy alternative candidates in the Likud party. That is no surprise. If there are surprises, they are in the other parties. Yair Lapid, whose foreign policy pronouncements were not perceived as authentic, has seemingly failed to convince most of his voters: 86% of them oppose early elections. Even they apparently do not see him as a prime minister in waiting. More than half (66%) of the supporters of leader of the opposition Isaac Herzog, who did the rounds of the television studios calling for the election to be brought forward, do not identify with his demand.
But the really interesting figures are in the right-wing parties that have been challenging Netanyahu's conduct of the operation. 70% of Habayit Hayehudi voters and 71% of Avigdor Liberman's Yisrael Beytenu voters do not find in the bitter taste that the operation has left behind a reason for an early election.
All the same, the question of elections is the most intriguing one in political circles. After all, since when has the will of the people counted for anything, and who cares if the last election was only eighteen months ago? No party is really ready for an election, or wants to hold one early. Even so, the Prime Minister's Bureau has its ears cocked, and analyses every utterance by every coalition partner. Given that Lapid can't afford to leave if he intends to see the Knesset again other than on television, all the Bureau's intelligence arms are currently preoccupied with the question whether Liberman will desert Netanyahu, just as he deserted the Olmert government in 2008 before the negotiations with Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen).
Liberman may not be starring in the opinion polls, but he has not lost his political hunting instinct. Habayit Hayehudi leader Naftali Bennett is climbing in the polls, but he needs another term to be ripe as an option for prime minister, whereas the experienced Liberman is considered ready for it now. He is emerging as the only one who could capitalize on the disappointment with Netanyahu among Likud voters.
To overcome this possible challenge, there are those in the Prime Minister's Bureau who are toying with the idea of Bennett and Netanyahu running on one ticket. The idea has advantages for both sides. Bennett would bring the young voters, while Netanyahu would attract the 50+ segment. For another term in Balfour Street, Netanyahu would be prepared to sell the Likud again, and promise Bennett number two spot in the joint list. Sources close to Netanyahu who have been working on the idea say that it has not fallen on deaf ears, and that the other side is willing to listen.
Poll results
If an election were held today, for which party would you vote?
(Results in terms of Knesset seats, first the current poll, followed by the result of the July poll, and, in parentheses, the number of seats in the current Knesset).
Likud 28, 31 (31)
Yisrael Beytenu 12, 13 (-)
Yesh Atid 9, 11 (19)
Labor 14, 14 (15)
Habayit Hayehudi 14, 13 (12)
Shas 9, 8 (11)
United Torah Judaism 7, 7 (7)
Hatenuah 4, 0 (6)
Meretz 7, 7 (6)
New party under Moshe Kahlon 5, 6 (-)
Hadash 5, 4 (4)
Ra'am-Ta'al 3, 4 (4)
National Democratic Assembly 3, 3 (3)
Published by Globes [online], Israel business news - www.globes-online.com - on August 28, 2014
© Copyright of Globes Publisher Itonut (1983) Ltd. 2013