"The worst coalition crisis since the government was formed," is how sources close to Minister of Finance Moshe Kahlon describe the situation over the demand by the haredi (ultra-Orthodox Jewish) parties to enshrine in law an exemption from conscription for yeshiva students. The finance minister is determined to pass the state budget in the Knesset by March 15, and at present the chances of this look slim. Knesset Finance Committee chairman Moshe Gafni (United Torah Judaism) has cancelled the committee session that was due to take place on the budget tomorrow (Monday), and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will return from his trip to the US only at the end of this week. The general feeling is that no-one is in charge.
<p>Unless the haredim climb down in the next few days, the fate of Netanyahu's government appears to be sealed. The election atmosphere can already be felt in the militant declarations of the parties and the renewed focus of each party on its support base. Kahlon, who up to now has zealously maintained the alliance with the haredim, has been heard in the past few days talking about how they torpedoed his planned tax on owners of three or more homes. Kahlon's secular supporters, and those with a traditional but not orthodox outlook, will not forgive him if he allows the haredim to arrange for themselves an exemption by law from military service.
<p>The break-up of the coalition is still avoidable. For the budget to pass in the Knesset plenum on March 15, the Finance Committee has to approve it for second and third reading by March 13 at the latest. In other words, it has just over a week. Even if it doesn't happen on the scheduled date, the coalition still has until March 31, 2019 to pass a budget for that year before the Knesset is legally required to be dissolved. But Kahlon is convinced that if his coalition partners fail to abide by their express commitment to pass the budget by the agreed date, there is no chance of it happening later. Like the ageing of the body before death, the process of weakening and collapse of the government will be unstoppable. As soon as the invisible line determining early elections is crossed, the crawl will swiftly become a rush.
<p>A snap election (the law requires a minimum of three weeks notice) is emerging as the most likely outcome. There is considerable irony in that, since the 2019 budget was planned as an election budget. "A perfect budget, with no cuts," is how Gafni described it. The 2018 reserve of NIS 3.2 billion designated for the disabled, Holocaust survivors, and a series of other causes dear to the hearts of politicians, also depends on the 2019 budget being passed. Failure to pass the budget will therefore be a blow to the coalition partners, and Kahlon chief among them. The Ministry of Finance took care to split off several important reforms from the budget, such as the bill to restrict the use of cash, so that as far the professionals in the ministry are concerned it will not be a disaster if the feverish work on the 2019 budget goes for naught.
<p><i>Published by Globes [online], Israel business news - <a href=http://www.globes-online.com>www.globes-online.com</a> - on March 4, 2018</i>
<p><i>© Copyright of Globes Publisher Itonut (1983) Ltd. 2018</i>