US Vice President Joseph Biden will ask Israel's leadership not to make a unilateral attack on Iranian nuclear targets. Biden will arrive in Israel tomorrow for a three-day visit, during which he will give a speech at Tel Aviv University.
US administration officials compare the importance of Biden's planned speech to the speech by President Barack Obama at Cairo University last year, which repositioned US-Arab relations.
During the speech, Biden is expected to confirm the parameters underpinning the US-Israeli relationship, including the US's deep and unwavering commitment to Israel's security. However, the key question is whether he will publicly declare that the US is committed to spreading its nuclear umbrella to cover Israel; in other words, if the US will threaten to strike back with nuclear weapons if Iran attacks or tries to attack Israel with unconventional arms.
US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton recently hinted that the US would spread its nuclear umbrella over friendly countries in the region, but she did not explicitly mention Israel. Observers believe that a public declaration of such a commitment by Biden, in Israel, may be the US administration's strongest weapon to persuade Israel to stand down, especially since Biden is arriving in Jerusalem with a particularly weak hand.
The Obama administration, both publicly and through diplomatic channels, has repeatedly made the argument against an Israeli attack on Iran on the grounds that the noose of sanctions against Iran is steadily being tightened. An Israeli diplomat once described this as "the sanctions mantra". However, the push for sanctions, which was supposed to peak at the US Security Council this week, is flagging.
An Israeli sources said that the US was trying to square the circle in its efforts to obtain international authorization for sanctions against Iran. Strong sanctions with an enforcement regime, will not obtain Chinese support in the Security Council, and probably not Russian support either. Both countries have veto rights, and at this stage it is unclear whether Beijing would abstain in a vote on strong sanctions. Current Security Council member Brazil also refuses to cooperate with the US. On the other hand, token or weak sanctions, which the Security Council might pass, will not persuade the Iran government to stop its uranium enrichment program.
Many analysts believe that only hitting at Iran's Achilles Heel - sanctions to block the export to Iran of gasoline and other refined fuel products - would force Teheran to yield, but have no chance of passage by the Security Council.
Under these circumstances, only an unequivocal public declaration by Biden that the US will cover Israel with its nuclear umbrella might persuade the Israeli government and public that this is preferable to a military adventure whose results are far from assured and whose consequences, such as attacks by long-range rockets by Hizbullah from Lebanon and Hamas from Gaza into Israel's cities, could be catastrophic.
Nonetheless, a clear statement to cover Israel with the US nuclear umbrella would mean that the Obama administration has basically given up and implies that there is no way to stop Iran's nuclear armament program. Some analysts believe that the Obama administration has already reached this conclusion and that the effort to reach a sanctions package is primarily aimed at calming Israel and to persuade it not to attack Iran.
Whether or not Biden raises the nuclear umbrella option, there is no doubt that he will not repeat his statement of July 4, 2009, in an ABC interview, which effectively gave Israel a green light to launch a military assault on Iran, when he said that Israel has a "sovereign right" to attack Iran to protect itself.
Biden will therefore sing a new song on his visit to Israel. His comments will echo those of US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Admiral Michael Mullen, who, during last month's visit to Israel, said that an Israeli attack on Iran "would be a big, big, big, problem for all of us." With all due respect to the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, a statement by the Vice President, with the full weight of the White House behind, is a whole new order of magnitude.
Published by Globes [online], Israel business news - www.globes-online.com - on March 7, 2010
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