The Crisis of Europe:
Breakthrough or breakdown
Sunday 9/12/2012

The vision of a European monetary union has been shaken in the past year more than any time since it was establish. The sovereign debt crisis, the collapse of Greece, Spain and Italy's budget holes, and the crisis in the banking system have taught Europe's leaders that monetary union and limited fiscal discipline is not enough. The next stage must be the giving up of fiscal and banking sovereignty or else the Eurozone will break up. Either scenario is likely, and Europe's leaders have lately shown just how of their commitment to the EU in its current structure may not be sustainable. The EU and its member states must make deeper structural changes in the midst of recession, burgeoning unemployment and rising social anger. The current imbalance between Eurozone member states, especially the northern countries and the southern tier, is jeopardizing the zone's economy, and there is no question that the internal European balance of economic powers must change. Despite the leaders' promises, differences between Germany, Europe's unchallenged hegemon, and all the other member states are widening and becoming more fundamental as perceptions diverge. What is the model that will enable the Eurozone to continue to function? Will we see more bitter disagreements in 2013 between German Chancellor Angela Merkel and other heads of government? Is the claim that the EU does not have enough resources to save the so-called toxic countries true? Is a break-up of the Eurozone in the cards? Is the departure of countries like Greece or Portugal only a matter of time? Will Spain or Italy ultimately leave? Or are the optimists right, and will the current crisis strengthen Europe and lead to the creation of new mechanisms of fiscal unity? What would be the global repercussions of the break-up of the Eurozone?Participants:

Participants:
Prof. Jacob Frenkel,
Chairman, JPMorgan Chase International & former Governor of the Bank of Israel
Dr. José Viñals, Financial Counselor and Director, Monetary and Capital Markets Department, IMF
Dr. Lorenzo Bini Smaghi, Former Member of the Executive Board, European Central Bank, Visiting Scholar at Harvard University’s Center for International Affairs
Moderator: Elliott Gotkine, Europe Business Editor, Bloomberg Television

 
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